气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting social tipping and norm change in controlled experiments

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2014893118
	Predicting social tipping and norm change in controlled experiments
	Andreoni J.; Nikiforakis N.; Siegenthaler S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:16
英文摘要	The ability to predict when societies will replace one social norm for another can have significant implications for welfare, especially when norms are detrimental. A popular theory poses that the pressure to conform to social norms creates tipping thresholds which, once passed, propel societies toward an alternative state. Predicting when societies will reach a tipping threshold, however, has been a major challenge because of the lack of experimental data for evaluating competing models. We present evidence from a large-scale laboratory experiment designed to test the theoretical predictions of a threshold model for social tipping and norm change. In our setting, societal preferences change gradually, forcing individuals to weigh the benefit from deviating from the norm against the cost from not conforming to the behavior of others. We show that the model correctly predicts in 96% of instances when a society will succeed or fail to abandon a detrimental norm. Strikingly, we observe widespread persistence of detrimental norms even when individuals determine the cost for nonconformity themselves as they set the latter too high. Interventions that facilitate a common understanding of the benefits from change help most societies abandon detrimental norms. We also show that instigators of change tend to be more risk tolerant and to dislike conformity more. Our findings demonstrate the value of threshold models for understanding social tipping in a broad range of social settings and for designing policies to promote welfare. © This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).
英文关键词	Conformity trap; Laboratory experiment; Social norms; Threshold models; Tipping points
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adult; article; human; organization; prediction; social norm; theoretical study; welfare
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/179813
作者单位	Department of Economics, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, United States; Division of Social Science, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Center for Behavioral Institutional Design, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Naveen Jindal School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andreoni J.,Nikiforakis N.,Siegenthaler S.. Predicting social tipping and norm change in controlled experiments[J],2021,118(16).
APA	Andreoni J.,Nikiforakis N.,&Siegenthaler S..(2021).Predicting social tipping and norm change in controlled experiments.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(16).
MLA	Andreoni J.,et al."Predicting social tipping and norm change in controlled experiments".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.16(2021).