气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2007488118
	Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement
	Citron D.T.; Guerra C.A.; Dolgert A.J.; Wu S.L.; Henry J.M.; Sánchez C. H.M.; Smith D.L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:18
英文摘要	Newly available datasets present exciting opportunities to investigate how human population movement contributes to the spread of infectious diseases across large geographical distances. It is now possible to construct realistic models of infectious disease dynamics for the purposes of understanding global-scale epidemics. Nevertheless, a remaining unanswered question is how best to leverage the new data to parameterize models of movement, and whether one's choice of movement model impacts modeled disease outcomes. We adapt three well-studied models of infectious disease dynamics, the susceptible-infected-recovered model, the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, and the Ross-Macdonald model, to incorporate either of two candidate movement models. We describe the effect that the choice of movement model has on each disease model's results, finding that in all cases, there are parameter regimes where choosing one movement model instead of another has a profound impact on epidemiological outcomes. We further demonstrate the importance of choosing an appropriate movement model using the applied case of malaria transmission and importation on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, finding that one model produces intelligible predictions of R0, whereas the other produces nonsensical results. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Human population movement; Infectious disease modeling; Malaria; Mathematical epidemiology
语种	英语
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/179689
作者单位	Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98121, United States; Medical Care Development International, Silver Spring, MD 20910, United States; Division of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Citron D.T.,Guerra C.A.,Dolgert A.J.,et al. Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement[J],2021,118(18).
APA	Citron D.T..,Guerra C.A..,Dolgert A.J..,Wu S.L..,Henry J.M..,...&Smith D.L..(2021).Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(18).
MLA	Citron D.T.,et al."Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.18(2021).