气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sources of uncertainty in long-term global scenarios of solar photovoltaic technology

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-00998-8
	Sources of uncertainty in long-term global scenarios of solar photovoltaic technology
	Jaxa-Rozen M.; Trutnevyte E.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758678X
起始页码	266
结束页码	273
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	The deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has consistently outpaced expectations over the past decade. However, long-term prospects for PV remain deeply uncertain, as recent global scenarios span two orders of magnitude in installed PV capacity by 2050. Here we systematically compile an ensemble of 1,550 scenarios from peer-reviewed and influential grey literature, including IPCC and non-IPCC scenarios, and apply a statistical learning framework to link scenario characteristics with foreseen PV outcomes. We show that a large portion of the uncertainty in the global scenarios is associated with general features such as the type of organization, energy model and policy assumptions, without referring to specific techno-economic assumptions. IPCC scenarios consistently project lower PV adoption pathways and higher capital costs than non-IPCC scenarios. We thus recommend increasing the diversity of models and scenario methods included in IPCC assessments to represent the multiple perspectives present in the PV scenario literature. ? 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited part of Springer Nature.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	photovoltaic system; scenario analysis; solar power; statistical analysis; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178780
作者单位	Renewable Energy Systems, Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE), Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jaxa-Rozen M.,Trutnevyte E.. Sources of uncertainty in long-term global scenarios of solar photovoltaic technology[J],2021,11(3).
APA	Jaxa-Rozen M.,&Trutnevyte E..(2021).Sources of uncertainty in long-term global scenarios of solar photovoltaic technology.Nature Climate Change,11(3).
MLA	Jaxa-Rozen M.,et al."Sources of uncertainty in long-term global scenarios of solar photovoltaic technology".Nature Climate Change 11.3(2021).