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DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01007-8
	No projected global drylands expansion under greenhouse warming
	Berg A.; McColl K.A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758678X
起始页码	331
结束页码	337
卷号	11 期号:4
英文摘要	Drylands, comprising land regions characterized by water-limited, sparse vegetation, have commonly been projected to expand globally under climate warming. Such projections, however, rely on an atmospheric proxy for drylands, the aridity index, which has recently been shown to yield qualitatively incorrect projections of various components of the terrestrial water cycle. Here, we use an alternative index of drylands, based directly on relevant ecohydrological variables, and compare projections of both indices in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models as well as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. The aridity index overestimates simulated ecohydrological index changes. This divergence reflects different index sensitivities to hydroclimate change and opposite responses to the physiological effect on vegetation of increasing atmospheric CO2. Atmospheric aridity is thus not an accurate proxy of the future extent of drylands. Despite greater uncertainties than in atmospheric projections, climate model ecohydrological projections indicate no global drylands expansion under greenhouse warming, contrary to previous claims based on atmospheric aridity. ? 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; CMIP; dryland farming; ecohydrology; global climate; greenhouse gas; hydrological cycle; hydrometeorology; index method
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178768
作者单位	Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Berg A.,McColl K.A.. No projected global drylands expansion under greenhouse warming[J],2021,11(4).
APA	Berg A.,&McColl K.A..(2021).No projected global drylands expansion under greenhouse warming.Nature Climate Change,11(4).
MLA	Berg A.,et al."No projected global drylands expansion under greenhouse warming".Nature Climate Change 11.4(2021).