气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Regional Dynamic Sea Level Simulated in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Mean Biases, Future Projections, and Their Linkages

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1029.1
	Regional Dynamic Sea Level Simulated in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Mean Biases, Future Projections, and Their Linkages
	Lyu K.; Zhang X.; Church J.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	6377
结束页码	6398
卷号	33 期号:15
英文摘要	The ocean dynamic sea level (DSL) is an important component of regional sea level projections. In this study, we analyze mean states and future projections of the DSL from the global coupled climate models participating in phase 5 and phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively). Despite persistent biases relative to observations, both CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulate the mean sea level reasonably well. The equatorward bias of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind stress is reduced from CMIP5 to CMIP6, which improves the simulated mean sea level in the Southern Ocean. The CMIP5 and CMIP6 DSL projections exhibit very similar features and intermodel uncertainties. With several models having a notably high climate sensitivity, CMIP6 projects larger DSL changes in the North Atlantic and Arctic associated with a larger weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We further identify linkages between model mean states and future projections by looking for their intermodel relationships. The common cold-tongue bias leads to an underestimation of DSL rise in the western tropical Pacific. Models with their simulated midlatitude westerly winds located more equatorward tend to project larger DSL changes in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. In contrast, a more equatorward location of the North Atlantic westerly winds or a weaker AMOC under current climatology is associated with a smaller weakening of the AMOC and weaker DSL changes in the North Atlantic and coastal Arctic. Our study provides useful emergent constraints for DSL projections and highlights the importance of reducing model mean-state biases for future projections. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Digital subscriber lines; Electric power system interconnection; Sea level; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations; Climate sensitivity; Coupled climate model; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Future projections; Regional dynamics; Southern Hemisphere; Westerly winds; Climate models; climate modeling; climatology; CMIP; global climate; overturn; sea level change; Southern Hemisphere; westerly; wind stress; Arctic; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North); Southern Ocean
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178727
作者单位	Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, Csiro Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lyu K.,Zhang X.,Church J.A.. Regional Dynamic Sea Level Simulated in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Mean Biases, Future Projections, and Their Linkages[J],2020,33(15).
APA	Lyu K.,Zhang X.,&Church J.A..(2020).Regional Dynamic Sea Level Simulated in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Mean Biases, Future Projections, and Their Linkages.Journal of Climate,33(15).
MLA	Lyu K.,et al."Regional Dynamic Sea Level Simulated in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Mean Biases, Future Projections, and Their Linkages".Journal of Climate 33.15(2020).