气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the spatiotemporal uncertainties in future meteorological droughts from CMIP5 models, emission scenarios, and bias corrections

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0411.1
	Assessing the spatiotemporal uncertainties in future meteorological droughts from CMIP5 models, emission scenarios, and bias corrections
	Wu C.; Yeh P.J.-F.; Ju J.; Chen Y.-Y.; Xu K.; Dai H.; Niu J.; Hu B.X.; Huang G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	1903
结束页码	1922
卷号	34 期号:5
英文摘要	Drought projections are accompanied with large uncertainties due to varying estimates of future warming scenarios from different modeling and forcing data. Using the standardized precipitation index (SPI), this study presents a global assessment of uncertainties in drought characteristics (severity S and frequency Df) projections based on the simulations of 28 general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A hierarchical framework incorporating a variance-based global sensitivity analysis was developed to quantify the uncertainties in drought characteristics projections at various spatial (global and regional) and temporal (decadal and 30-yr) scales due to 28 GCMs, three representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), and two bias-correction (BC) methods. The results indicated that the largest uncertainty contribution in the globally projected S and Df is from the GCM uncertainty (＞60%), followed by BC (＜35%) and RCP (＜16%) uncertainty. Spatially, BC reduces the spreads among GCMs particularly in Northern Hemisphere (NH), leading to smaller GCM uncertainty in the NH than the Southern Hemisphere (SH). In contrast, the BC and RCP uncertainties are larger in the NH than the SH, and the BC uncertainty can be larger than GCM uncertainty for some regions (e.g., southwest Asia). At the decadal and 30-yr time scales, the contributions for three uncertainty sources show larger variability in S than Df projections, especially in the SH. The GCM and BC uncertainties show overall decreasing trends with time, while the RCP uncertainty is expected to increase over time and even can be larger than BC uncertainty for some regions (e.g., northern Asia) by the end of this century. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate prediction; Drought; Ensembles; General circulation models; Model comparison; Precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Drought; Sensitivity analysis; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Drought characteristics; General circulation model; Meteorological drought; Standardized precipitation index; Uncertainty contributions; Uncertainty sources; Variance-based global sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty analysis; climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; CMIP; correction; drought; ensemble forecasting; future prospect; general circulation model; meteorology; precipitation (climatology); spatiotemporal analysis; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178705
作者单位	Institute of Groundwater and Earth Sciences, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China; Green Development Institute of Zhaoqing, Zhaoqing, China; Discipline of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, Monash University, Malaysia Campus, Subang Jaya, Malaysia; School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, China; Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu C.,Yeh P.J.-F.,Ju J.,et al. Assessing the spatiotemporal uncertainties in future meteorological droughts from CMIP5 models, emission scenarios, and bias corrections[J],2021,34(5).
APA	Wu C..,Yeh P.J.-F..,Ju J..,Chen Y.-Y..,Xu K..,...&Huang G..(2021).Assessing the spatiotemporal uncertainties in future meteorological droughts from CMIP5 models, emission scenarios, and bias corrections.Journal of Climate,34(5).
MLA	Wu C.,et al."Assessing the spatiotemporal uncertainties in future meteorological droughts from CMIP5 models, emission scenarios, and bias corrections".Journal of Climate 34.5(2021).