Climate Change Data Portal
| DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0045.1 |
| The niño-3.4 prediction skill of empirically adjusted wind power | |
| Kodama K.; Burls N.J.; Trenary L. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 08948755 |
| 起始页码 | 2001 |
| 结束页码 | 2015 |
| 卷号 | 34期号:6 |
| 英文摘要 | Wind power, defined as the energy received by the ocean from wind, has been identified as a potentially viable precursor of ENSO. The correlation between tropical Pacific wind power anomalies and eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies can be enhanced over a range of lead times by applying an empirical adjusted framework that accounts for both the underlying climatological state upon which a wind power perturbation acts and the directionality of wind anomalies. Linear regression is used to assess the seasonal prediction skill of adjusted wind power in comparison to unadjusted, as well as the conventional ENSO predictors wind stress and warm water volume. The forecast skill of each regression model is evaluated in a 1800-yr preindustrial climate simulation (CESM-LENS), as well as 23 years of observations. The simulation results show that each predictor's effectiveness varies considerably with the sample record, providing a measure of the uncertainty involved in evaluating prediction skill based on the short observational record. The influence of climatological biases is however a demonstrable concern for results from the simulated climate system. Despite the short record, the observational analysis indicates that adjusted wind power skill is comparable to the conventional dynamical predictors and notably is significantly more predictable than unadjusted wind power when initialized in the summer. Moreover, the adjusted framework results in a reduction of error when evaluating wind power associated with wind bursts, reinforcing previous findings that the adjusted framework is particularly useful for capturing the ENSO response to westerly wind bursts. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved. |
| 英文关键词 | El Niño; ENSO; Regression analysis |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | Climate models; Climatology; Oceanography; Regression analysis; Surface waters; Wind power; Wind stress; Climate simulation; Eastern equatorial Pacific; Observational analysis; Reduction of errors; Sea surface temperature anomalies; Seasonal prediction; Tropical pacific wind; Westerly wind bursts; Weather forecasting; climate modeling; climate prediction; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; regression analysis; sea surface temperature; wind power; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial); Pacific Ocean (Tropical) |
| 来源期刊 | Journal of Climate
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178682 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kodama K.,Burls N.J.,Trenary L.. The niño-3.4 prediction skill of empirically adjusted wind power[J],2021,34(6). |
| APA | Kodama K.,Burls N.J.,&Trenary L..(2021).The niño-3.4 prediction skill of empirically adjusted wind power.Journal of Climate,34(6). |
| MLA | Kodama K.,et al."The niño-3.4 prediction skill of empirically adjusted wind power".Journal of Climate 34.6(2021). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
