气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of low-frequency internal climate variability and greenhouse warming on El Niño

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0232.1
	Impacts of low-frequency internal climate variability and greenhouse warming on El Niño–Southern oscillation
	Ng B.; Cai W.; Cowan T.; Bi D.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	2205
结束页码	2218
卷号	34 期号:6
英文摘要	El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate fluctuations with wide-ranging socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Understanding the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño response to a warmer climate is paramount, yet the role of internal climate variability in modulating their response is not clear. Using large ensembles, we find that internal variability generates a spread in the standard deviation and skewness of these two El Niño types that is similar to the spread of 17 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that realistically simulate ENSO diversity. Based on 40 Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and 99 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) members, unforced variability can explain more than 90% of the historical EP and CP El Niño standard deviation and all of the ENSO skewness spread in the 17 CMIP5 models. Both CESM-LE and the selected CMIP5 models show increased EP and CP El Niño variability in a warmer climate, driven by a stronger mean vertical temperature gradient in the upper ocean and faster surface warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, MPI-GE shows no agreement in EP or CP standard deviation change. This is due to weaker sensitivity to the warming signal, such that when the eastern equatorial Pacific surface warming is faster, the change in upper ocean vertical temperature gradient tends to be weaker. This highlights that individual models produce a different ENSO response in a warmer climate, and that considerable uncertainty within the CMIP5 ensemble may be caused by internal climate variability. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate change; El Niño; ENSO; Tropical variability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climatology; Environmental impact; Higher order statistics; Nickel compounds; Statistics; Thermal gradients; Climate fluctuations; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Eastern equatorial Pacific; Internal climate variability; Internal variability; Max Planck Institute; Southern oscillation; Vertical temperature gradients; Climate models; annual variation; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; global warming; greenhouse effect; skewness; Southern Oscillation; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Central); Pacific Ocean (East)
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178672
作者单位	Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; CSIRO Climate Science Centre, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China; Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, Australia; Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ng B.,Cai W.,Cowan T.,等. Impacts of low-frequency internal climate variability and greenhouse warming on El Niño–Southern oscillation[J],2021,34(6).
APA	Ng B.,Cai W.,Cowan T.,&Bi D..(2021).Impacts of low-frequency internal climate variability and greenhouse warming on El Niño–Southern oscillation.Journal of Climate,34(6).
MLA	Ng B.,et al."Impacts of low-frequency internal climate variability and greenhouse warming on El Niño–Southern oscillation".Journal of Climate 34.6(2021).