气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predictability of El Niño duration based on the onset timing

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0963.1
	Predictability of El Niño duration based on the onset timing
	Wu X.; Okumura Y.M.; Dinezio P.N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	1351
结束页码	1366
卷号	34 期号:4
英文摘要	Analysis of observational data and a long control simulation of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), shows that El Niño events developing in boreal spring to early summer usually terminate after peaking in winter, whereas those developing after summer tend to persist into the second year. To test the predictability of El Niño duration based on the onset timing, perfect model predictions were conducted for three El Niño events developing in April or September in the CESM1 control simulation. For each event, 30-member ensemble simulations are initialized with the same oceanic conditions in the onset month but with slightly different atmospheric conditions and integrated for 2 years. The CESM1 successfully predicts the termination of El Niño after the peak in 95% of the April-initialized simulations and the continuation of El Niño into the second year in 83% of the September-initialized simulations. The predictable component of El Niño duration arises from the initial oceanic conditions that affect the timing and magnitude of negative feedback within the equatorial Pacific, as well as from the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The ensemble spread of El Niño duration, on the other hand, originates from surface wind variability over the western equatorial Pacific in spring following the peak. The wind variability causes a larger spread in the September-initialized than the April-initialized ensemble simulations due to weaker negative feedback in spring. These results indicate potential predictability of El Niño events beyond the current operational forecasts by 1 year. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Climate models; Climate prediction; El Nino; ENSO; Pacific Ocean
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Timing circuits; Atmospheric conditions; Control simulation; Earth system model; Ensemble simulation; Equatorial Pacific; Oceanic conditions; Operational forecasts; Wind variabilities; Feedback; air-sea interaction; climate modeling; climate prediction; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; Atlantic Ocean; Indian Ocean; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178634
作者单位	Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu X.,Okumura Y.M.,Dinezio P.N.. Predictability of El Niño duration based on the onset timing[J],2021,34(4).
APA	Wu X.,Okumura Y.M.,&Dinezio P.N..(2021).Predictability of El Niño duration based on the onset timing.Journal of Climate,34(4).
MLA	Wu X.,et al."Predictability of El Niño duration based on the onset timing".Journal of Climate 34.4(2021).