气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Trends in the extremes of environments associated with severe U.S. thunderstorms

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0826.1
	Trends in the extremes of environments associated with severe U.S. thunderstorms
	Koch E.; Koh J.; Davison A.C.; Lepore C.; Tippett M.K.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	1259
结束页码	1272
卷号	34 期号:4
英文摘要	Severe thunderstorms can have devastating impacts. Concurrently high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are known to be conducive to severe weather, so high values of PROD 5 (CAPE)1/2 3 SRH have been used to indicate high risk of severe thunderstorms. We consider the extreme values of these three variables for a large area of the contiguous United States over the period 1979–2015 and use extreme-value theory and a multiple testing procedure to show that there is a significant time trend in the extremes for PROD maxima in April, May, and August, for CAPE maxima in April, May, and June, and for maxima of SRH in April and May. These observed increases in CAPE are also relevant for rainfall extremes and are expected in a warmer climate but have not previously been reported. Moreover, we show that El Niño–Southern Oscillation explains variation in the extremes of PROD and SRH in February. Our results suggest that the risk from severe thunderstorms in April and May is increasing in parts of the United States where it was already high and that the risk from storms in February is increased over the main part of the region during La Niña years. Ó 2021 American Meteorological Society
英文关键词	Extreme events; Risk assessment; Southern Oscillation; Statistical techniques; Thunderstorms; Trends
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Potential energy; American meteorological societies; Convective available potential energies; Extreme value; Extreme value theory; Multiple testing; Rainfall extremes; Severe weather; Southern oscillation; Thunderstorms; climate change; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; extreme event; rainfall; risk assessment; severe weather; Southern Oscillation; statistical analysis; thunderstorm; trend analysis; United States
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178633
作者单位	Institute of Mathematics, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Koch E.,Koh J.,Davison A.C.,et al. Trends in the extremes of environments associated with severe U.S. thunderstorms[J],2021,34(4).
APA	Koch E.,Koh J.,Davison A.C.,Lepore C.,&Tippett M.K..(2021).Trends in the extremes of environments associated with severe U.S. thunderstorms.Journal of Climate,34(4).
MLA	Koch E.,et al."Trends in the extremes of environments associated with severe U.S. thunderstorms".Journal of Climate 34.4(2021).