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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0630.1
	Predictable mode of tropical intraseasonal variability in boreal summer
	Li X.; Tang Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	3355
结束页码	3366
卷号	34 期号:9
英文摘要	This work uses a 19-yr ensemble hindcast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the average predictable time (APT) method to detect the most predictable tropical intraseasonal variability (ISV) mode. The first and most predictable mode (APT1) of tropical ISV is similar to a joint merger of the two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) modes with more weight on the second mode and is characterized by a tripole pattern with two positive centers in the equatorial western Indian Ocean and central Pacific Ocean and a negative center over the Maritime Continent. The APT1 doubles the skillful prediction period made by the MJO defined by a correlation skill of 0.5 (approximately 25 days in the ECMWF model), demonstrating its potential to become a skillful prediction target and to offer powerful subseasonal prediction sources. The underlying physical process and predictability source of the APT1 are further analyzed. The APT1 is very similar to the pattern triggered by the most predictable tropical intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies mode, suggesting its oceanic origin. Tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction plays a critical role in the APT1 by enhancing the evolution of tropical convection cells under WES (wind-evaporation-SST) and Bjerknes feedbacks. The internal atmospheric processes also have an important impact on the formation and maintenance of the APT1. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Climate prediction; Forecast verification/skill; Intraseasonal variability; Madden-Julian oscillation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climatology; Surface waters; Tropics; Weather forecasting; Atmospheric process; European centre for medium-range weather forecasts; Madden-Julian oscillation; Maritime Continent; Sea surface temperature anomalies; Tropical convection; Tropical intraseasonal variability; Western indian oceans; Oceanography
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178611
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai, China; Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China; Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li X.,Tang Y.. Predictable mode of tropical intraseasonal variability in boreal summer[J],2021,34(9).
APA	Li X.,&Tang Y..(2021).Predictable mode of tropical intraseasonal variability in boreal summer.Journal of Climate,34(9).
MLA	Li X.,et al."Predictable mode of tropical intraseasonal variability in boreal summer".Journal of Climate 34.9(2021).