气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to 12°C arctic sea ice loss?

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0613.1
	Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to 12°C arctic sea ice loss?
	Peings Y.; Labe Z.M.; Magnusdottir G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	3751
结束页码	3769
卷号	34 期号:10
英文摘要	This study presents results from the Polar Amplification Multimodel Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) single-year time-slice experiments that aim to isolate the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss at global warming levels of 128C. Using two general circulation models (GCMs), the ensemble size is increased up to 300 ensemble members, beyond the recommended 100 members. After partitioning the response in groups of 100 ensemble members, the reproducibility of the results is evaluated, with a focus on the response of the midlatitude jet streams in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Both atmosphere-only and coupled ocean–atmosphere PAMIP experiments are analyzed. Substantial differences in the midlatitude response are found among the different experiment subsets, suggesting that 100-member ensembles are still significantly influenced by internal variability, which can mislead conclusions. Despite an overall stronger response, the coupled ocean–atmosphere runs exhibit greater spread due to additional ENSO-related internal variability when the ocean is interactive. The lack of consistency in the response is true for anomalies that are statistically significant according to Student’s t and false discovery rate tests. This is problematic for the multimodel assessment of the response, as some of the spread may be attributed to different model sensitivities whereas it is due to internal variability. We propose a method to overcome this consistency issue that allows for more robust conclusions when only 100 ensemble members are used. Ó 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy
英文关键词	Arctic; Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Climate variability; Numerical analysis/modeling; Sea ice; Teleconnections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Sea ice; American meteorological societies; Atmospheric response; Copyright informations; False discovery rate; General circulation model; Internal variability; Polar amplifications; Reproducibilities; Oceanography
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178571
作者单位	Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Peings Y.,Labe Z.M.,Magnusdottir G.. Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to 12°C arctic sea ice loss?[J],2021,34(10).
APA	Peings Y.,Labe Z.M.,&Magnusdottir G..(2021).Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to 12°C arctic sea ice loss?.Journal of Climate,34(10).
MLA	Peings Y.,et al."Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to 12°C arctic sea ice loss?".Journal of Climate 34.10(2021).