气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Two-year dynamical predictions of ENSO event duration during 1954

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0619.1
	Two-year dynamical predictions of ENSO event duration during 1954–2015
	Wu X.; Okumura Y.M.; Deser C.; Dinezio P.N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	4069
结束页码	4087
卷号	34 期号:10
英文摘要	El Niño and La Niña events show a wide range of durations over the historical record. The predictability of event duration has remained largely unknown, although multiyear events could prolong their climate impacts. To explore the predictability of El Niño and La Niña event duration, multiyear ensemble forecasts are conducted with the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). The 10–40-member forecasts are initialized with observed oceanic conditions on 1 March, 1 June, and 1 November of each year during 1954–2015; ensemble spread is created through slight perturbations to the atmospheric initial conditions. The CESM1 predicts the duration of individual El Niño and La Niña events with lead times ranging from 6 to 25 months. In particular, forecasts initialized in November, near the first peak of El Niño or La Niña, can skillfully predict whether the event continues through the second year with 1-yr lead time. The occurrence of multiyear La Niña events can be predicted even earlier with lead times up to 25 months, especially when they are preceded by strong El Niño. The predictability of event duration arises from initial thermocline depth anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, as well as sea surface temperature anomalies within and outside the tropical Pacific. The forecast error growth, on the other hand, originates mainly from atmospheric variability over the North Pacific in boreal winter. The high predictability of event duration indicates the potential for extending 12-month operational forecasts of El Niño and La Niña events by one additional year. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Climate prediction; ENSO; Pacific Ocean; Tropics
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climatology; Oceanography; Surface waters; Atmospheric variability; Dynamical predictions; Ensemble forecasts; Equatorial Pacific; Historical records; Oceanic conditions; Operational forecasts; Sea surface temperature anomalies; Weather forecasting
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178565
作者单位	Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu X.,Okumura Y.M.,Deser C.,等. Two-year dynamical predictions of ENSO event duration during 1954–2015[J],2021,34(10).
APA	Wu X.,Okumura Y.M.,Deser C.,&Dinezio P.N..(2021).Two-year dynamical predictions of ENSO event duration during 1954–2015.Journal of Climate,34(10).
MLA	Wu X.,et al."Two-year dynamical predictions of ENSO event duration during 1954–2015".Journal of Climate 34.10(2021).