气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of stochastic physics and model resolution on the simulation of tropical cyclones in climate GCMs

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0507.1
	Impact of stochastic physics and model resolution on the simulation of tropical cyclones in climate GCMs
	Vidale P.L.; Hodges K.; Vannière B.; Davini P.; Roberts M.J.; Strommen K.; Weisheimer A.; Plesca E.; Corti S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	4315
结束页码	4341
卷号	34 期号:11
英文摘要	The role of model resolution in simulating geophysical vortices with the characteristics of realistic tropical cyclones (TCs) is well established. The push for increasing resolution continues, with general circulation models (GCMs) starting to use sub-10-km grid spacing. In the same context it has been suggested that the use of stochastic physics (SP) may act as a surrogate for high resolution, providing some of the benefits at a fraction of the cost. Either technique can reduce model uncertainty, and enhance reliability, by providing a more dynamic environment for initial synoptic disturbances to be spawned and to grow into TCs. We present results from a systematic comparison of the role of model resolution and SP in the simulation of TCs, using EC-Earth simulations from project Climate-SPHINX, in large ensemble mode, spanning five different resolutions. All tropical cyclonic systems, including TCs, were tracked explicitly. As in previous studies, the number of simulated TCs increases with the use of higher resolution, but SP further enhances TC frequencies by;30%, in a strikingly similar way. The use of SP is beneficial for removing systematic climate biases, albeit not consistently so for interannual variability; conversely, the use of SP improves the simulation of the seasonal cycle of TC frequency. An investigation of the mechanisms behind this response indicates that SP generates both higher TC (and TC seed) genesis rates, and more suitable environmental conditions, enabling a more efficient transition of TC seeds into TCs. These results were confirmed by the use of equivalent simulations with the HadGEM3-GC31 GCM. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate models; General circulation models; Interannual variability; Numerical weather prediction/forecasting; Stochastic models; Tropical cyclones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Hurricanes; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Storms; Tropics; Uncertainty analysis; Different resolutions; Dynamic environments; Environmental conditions; General circulation model; Higher resolution; Interannual variability; Model uncertainties; Tropical cyclone; Climate models
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178556
作者单位	NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Torino, Italy; Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom; Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; NCAS, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vidale P.L.,Hodges K.,Vannière B.,et al. Impact of stochastic physics and model resolution on the simulation of tropical cyclones in climate GCMs[J],2021,34(11).
APA	Vidale P.L..,Hodges K..,Vannière B..,Davini P..,Roberts M.J..,...&Corti S..(2021).Impact of stochastic physics and model resolution on the simulation of tropical cyclones in climate GCMs.Journal of Climate,34(11).
MLA	Vidale P.L.,et al."Impact of stochastic physics and model resolution on the simulation of tropical cyclones in climate GCMs".Journal of Climate 34.11(2021).