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DOI	10.1038/s41612-017-0003-7
	ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region
	Abid M.A.; Almazroui M.; Kucharski F.; O’Brien E.; Yousef A.E.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	23973722
卷号	1 期号:1
英文摘要	The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is considered to be responsible for rainfall predictability in many regions. Some of its regional teleconnections, such as over the Arabian Peninsula in boreal summer (June–August) season, are not well studied. Therefore, in this paper, the relationship between the summer seasonal mean rainfall and ENSO is analyzed with the aid of a 15-member ensemble of simulations using the Saudi-King Abdulaziz University (KAU) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) for the period 1981–2015. The southwestern peninsula rainfall is linked to the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the central-eastern pacific region. This relationship is established through an atmospheric teleconnection which shows upper-level convergence anomalies over the southern Arabian Peninsula compensating the central-eastern Pacific upper-level divergence anomalies for the warm ENSO phase, and vice-versa for the cold Phase. The upper-level convergence over the southern Arabian Peninsula leads to sinking motion, low-level divergence and consequently to reduced rainfall in the warm phase, while reverse happens in the cold phase. The correlation coefficient between the observed area-averged Niño3.4 index and a Southwestern Arabian Peninsula Rainfall Index (SARI) is −0.43 (statistically significant at 95%). Overall, model shows a potential predictability (PP) of 0.53 for the SARI region. Predictability during El Niño is higher than during La Niña events. This is not only because of a stronger signal, but also noise reduction contributes to the increase of PP in El Niño compared to that of La Niña years. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; rainfall; sea surface temperature; summer; teleconnection; temperature anomaly; Arabian Peninsula
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178220
作者单位	Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Earth System Physics Section, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Abid M.A.,Almazroui M.,Kucharski F.,et al. ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region[J],2018,1(1).
APA	Abid M.A.,Almazroui M.,Kucharski F.,O’Brien E.,&Yousef A.E..(2018).ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,1(1).
MLA	Abid M.A.,et al."ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1.1(2018).