气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): 21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41612-018-0032-x
	21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection
	Allen R.J.; Anderson R.G.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	23973722
卷号	1 期号:1
英文摘要	Greenhouse gas induced climate change is expected to lead to negative hydrological impacts for southwestern North America, including California (CA). This includes a decrease in the amount and frequency of precipitation, reductions in Sierra snow pack, and an increase in evapotranspiration, all of which imply a decline in surface water availability, and an increase in drought and stress on water resources. However, a recent study showed the importance of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming and an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like teleconnection in driving an increase in CA precipitation through the 21st century, particularly during winter (DJF). Here, we extend this prior work and show wetter (drier) CA conditions, based on several drought metrics, are associated with an El Niño (La Niña)-like SST pattern. Models that better simulate the observed ENSO-CA precipitation teleconnection also better simulate the ENSO-CA drought relationships, and yield negligible change in the risk of 21st century CA drought, primarily due to wetting during winter. Seasonally, however, CA drought risk is projected to increase during the non-winter months, particularly in the models that poorly simulate the observed teleconnection. Thus, future projections of CA drought are dependent on model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection. As opposed to focusing on adapting to less water, models that better simulate the teleconnection imply adaptation measures focused on smoothing seasonal differences for affected agricultural, terrestrial, and aquatic systems, as well as effectively capturing enhanced winter runoff. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	drought; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; modeling; sea surface temperature; teleconnection; twenty first century; California; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical); United States
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178183
作者单位	Department of Earth Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA 92521, United States; Salinity Laboratory, USDA-Agricultural Research Service, George E. Brown Jr. Salinity Laboratory, 450 W. Big Springs Rd., Riverside, CA 92507-4617, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Allen R.J.,Anderson R.G.. 21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection[J],2018,1(1).
APA	Allen R.J.,&Anderson R.G..(2018).21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,1(1).
MLA	Allen R.J.,et al."21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1.1(2018).