气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Synchronization and causality across time scales in El Niño Southern Oscillation

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DOI	10.1038/s41612-018-0043-7
	Synchronization and causality across time scales in El Niño Southern Oscillation
	Jajcay N.; Kravtsov S.; Sugihara G.; Tsonis A.A.; Paluš M.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	23973722
卷号	1 期号:1
英文摘要	Statistical inference of causal interactions and synchronization between dynamical phenomena evolving on different temporal scales is of vital importance for better understanding and prediction of natural complex systems such as the Earth’s climate. This article introduces and applies information theory diagnostics to phase and amplitude time series of different oscillatory components of observed data that characterizes El Niño/Southern Oscillation. A suite of significant interactions between processes operating on different time scales is detected and shown to be important for emergence of extreme events. The mechanisms of these nonlinear interactions are further studied in conceptual low-order and state-of-the-art dynamical, as well as statistical climate models. Observed and simulated interactions exhibit substantial discrepancies, whose understanding may be the key to an improved prediction of ENSO. Moreover, the statistical framework applied here is suitable for inference of cross-scale interactions in human brain dynamics and other complex systems. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	amplitude; atmospheric dynamics; climate modeling; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; time series analysis; timescale
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178145
作者单位	Department of Complex Systems, Institute of Computer Science, Czech Academy of Sciences, Pod Vodárenskou věží 271/2, Prague 8, 182 07, Czech Republic; Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, V Holešovičkách 747/2, Prague 8, 180 00, Czech Republic; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences Group, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 3200 N Cramer Street, Milwaukee, WI 53211, United States; P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Nakhimovskiy Prospekt 36, Moscow, 117218, Russian Federation; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 8622 Kennel Way, La Jolla, CA 92037, United States; Hydrologic Research Center, 11440 West Bernardo Court Suite 375, San Diego, CA 92127, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jajcay N.,Kravtsov S.,Sugihara G.,et al. Synchronization and causality across time scales in El Niño Southern Oscillation[J],2018,1(1).
APA	Jajcay N.,Kravtsov S.,Sugihara G.,Tsonis A.A.,&Paluš M..(2018).Synchronization and causality across time scales in El Niño Southern Oscillation.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,1(1).
MLA	Jajcay N.,et al."Synchronization and causality across time scales in El Niño Southern Oscillation".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1.1(2018).