气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models

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DOI	10.1038/s41612-018-0044-6
	Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models
	Kravtsov S.; Grimm C.; Gu S.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	23973722
卷号	1 期号:1
英文摘要	Reliability of future global warming projections depends on how well climate models reproduce the observed climate change over the twentieth century. In this regard, deviations of the model-simulated climate change from observations, such as a recent “pause” in global warming, have received considerable attention. Such decadal mismatches between model-simulated and observed climate trends are common throughout the twentieth century, and their causes are still poorly understood. Here we show that the discrepancies between the observed and simulated climate variability on decadal and longer timescale have a coherent structure suggestive of a pronounced Global Multidecadal Oscillation. Surface temperature anomalies associated with this variability originate in the North Atlantic and spread out to the Pacific and Southern oceans and Antarctica, with Arctic following suit in about 25–35 years. While climate models exhibit various levels of decadal climate variability and some regional similarities to observations, none of the model simulations considered match the observed signal in terms of its magnitude, spatial patterns and their sequential time development. These results highlight a substantial degree of uncertainty in our interpretation of the observed climate change using current generation of climate models. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; decadal variation; global warming; oscillation; temperature profile; twentieth century; Antarctica; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Pacific Ocean; Southern Ocean
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178141
作者单位	Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences Group, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States; P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation; Department of Mathematics, County College of Morris, Randolph, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kravtsov S.,Grimm C.,Gu S.. Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models[J],2018,1(1).
APA	Kravtsov S.,Grimm C.,&Gu S..(2018).Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,1(1).
MLA	Kravtsov S.,et al."Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1.1(2018).