气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41612-019-0086-4
	Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants
	Cain M.; Lynch J.; Allen M.R.; Fuglestvedt J.S.; Frame D.J.; Macey A.H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	23973722
卷号	2 期号:1
英文摘要	Anthropogenic global warming at a given time is largely determined by the cumulative total emissions (or stock) of long-lived climate pollutants (LLCPs), predominantly carbon dioxide (CO2), and the emission rates (or flow) of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) immediately prior to that time. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), reporting of greenhouse gas emissions has been standardised in terms of CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) emissions using Global Warming Potentials (GWP) over 100-years, but the conventional usage of GWP does not adequately capture the different behaviours of LLCPs and SLCPs, or their impact on global mean surface temperature. An alternative usage of GWP, denoted GWP, overcomes this problem by equating an increase in the emission rate of an SLCP with a one-off “pulse” emission of CO2. We show that this approach, while an improvement on the conventional usage, slightly underestimates the impact of recent increases in SLCP emissions on current rates of warming because the climate does not respond instantaneously to radiative forcing. We resolve this with a modification of the GWP definition, which incorporates a term for each of the short-timescale and long-timescale climate responses to changes in radiative forcing. The amended version allows “CO2-warming-equivalent” (CO2-we) emissions to be calculated directly from reported emissions. Thus SLCPs can be incorporated directly into carbon budgets consistent with long-term temperature goals, because every unit of CO2-we emitted generates approximately the same amount of warming, whether it is emitted as a SLCP or a LLCP. This is not the case for conventionally derived CO2-e. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon budget; carbon dioxide; chemical pollutant; computer simulation; emission inventory; global warming; greenhouse gas; numerical model; pollution monitoring; radiative forcing; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; warming
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178100
作者单位	Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, 34 Broad Street, Oxford, OX1 3BD, United Kingdom; Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, United Kingdom; Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), PO Box 1129 Blindern, Oslo, 0318, Norway; New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand; Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand; Institut d’Etudes Avancées de Nantes, 5, Allée Jacques Berque, Nantes, 44000, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cain M.,Lynch J.,Allen M.R.,et al. Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants[J],2019,2(1).
APA	Cain M.,Lynch J.,Allen M.R.,Fuglestvedt J.S.,Frame D.J.,&Macey A.H..(2019).Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,2(1).
MLA	Cain M.,et al."Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2.1(2019).