气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): New insights into natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of global/regional climate evolution

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41612-019-0075-7
	New insights into natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of global/regional climate evolution
	Wu T.; Hu A.; Gao F.; Zhang J.; Meehl G.A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	23973722
卷号	2 期号:1
英文摘要	Because of natural decadal climate variability—Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) and Pacific decadal variability (PDV) —the increase of global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) has not been monotonic although atmospheric greenhouse-gas (GHG) concentrations have been increasing continuously. It has always been a challenge regarding how to separate the effects of these two factors on GMSAT. Here, we find a physically based quasi-linear relationship between transient GMSAT and well-mixed GHG changes for both observations and model simulations. With AMV and PDV defined as the combination of variability over both the Atlantic and Pacific basins after the GHG-related trend is removed, we show that the observed GMSAT changes from 1880 to 2017 on multi-decadal or longer timescales receive contributions of about 70% from GHGs, while AMV and PDV together account for roughly 30%. Moreover, AMV contributes more to time-evolving GMSAT on multi-decadal and longer timescales, but PDV leads AMV on decadal timescales with comparable contributions to GMSAT trends. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; anthropogenic effect; climate variation; computer simulation; concentration (composition); decadal variation; greenhouse gas; numerical model
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178092
作者单位	Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, No. 46, Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing, 100081, China; National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 19(A) Yuquan Road, Beijing, 100049, China; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, No. 46, Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing, 100081, China; China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, No. 46, Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing, 100081, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu T.,Hu A.,Gao F.,et al. New insights into natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of global/regional climate evolution[J],2019,2(1).
APA	Wu T.,Hu A.,Gao F.,Zhang J.,&Meehl G.A..(2019).New insights into natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of global/regional climate evolution.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,2(1).
MLA	Wu T.,et al."New insights into natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of global/regional climate evolution".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2.1(2019).