气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5
	Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
	Horton B.P.; Khan N.S.; Cahill N.; Lee J.S.H.; Shaw T.A.; Garner A.J.; Kemp A.C.; Engelhart S.E.; Rahmstorf S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	23973722
卷号	3 期号:1
英文摘要	Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. © 2020, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; estimation method; global warming; meltwater; panel data; scenario analysis; sea level change; survey method; uncertainty analysis; Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarctica
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178055
作者单位	Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore; Department of Earth Sciences and Swire Marine Institute, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland; Department of Environmental Science, Rowan University, Glassboro, NJ 08028, United States; Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155, United States; Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, United Kingdom; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, Potsdam, 144473, Germany; Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Telegrafenberg A62, Potsdam, 144473, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Horton B.P.,Khan N.S.,Cahill N.,et al. Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey[J],2020,3(1).
APA	Horton B.P..,Khan N.S..,Cahill N..,Lee J.S.H..,Shaw T.A..,...&Rahmstorf S..(2020).Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,3(1).
MLA	Horton B.P.,et al."Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 3.1(2020).