气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future exacerbation of hot and dry summer monsoon extremes in India

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DOI	10.1038/s41612-020-0113-5
	Future exacerbation of hot and dry summer monsoon extremes in India
	Mishra V.; Thirumalai K.; Singh D.; Aadhar S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	23973722
卷号	3 期号:1
英文摘要	Summer monsoon (June-September) precipitation is crucial for agricultural activities in India. Extremes during the monsoon season can have deleterious effects on water availability and agriculture in the region. Here, we show that hot and dry extremes during the summer monsoon season significantly impact food production in India and find that they tend to occur during El Niño years during the observed record of 1951–2018. We then use an ensemble of climate simulations for the historic (1971–2000) and future (2006–2100) that capture this coupling between El Niño and the Indian monsoon to show that the frequency of concurrent hot and dry extremes increases by a factor of 1.5 under continued greenhouse warming during the 21st century. Despite projections of summer monsoon intensification on the order of ~10%, the rise in surface air temperatures as well as increase in rainfall variability contributes to more severe hot and dry monsoon extremes over India, thereby posing a substantial challenge to future food security in India. © 2020, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate modeling; El Nino; extreme event; food production; food security; greenhouse effect; monsoon; precipitation (climatology); summer; twenty first century; warming; water availability; India
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178047
作者单位	Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382355, India; Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382355, India; Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, 1040 E. 4th Street, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States; School of Environment, Washington State University, Vancouver, WA 98686, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mishra V.,Thirumalai K.,Singh D.,et al. Future exacerbation of hot and dry summer monsoon extremes in India[J],2020,3(1).
APA	Mishra V.,Thirumalai K.,Singh D.,&Aadhar S..(2020).Future exacerbation of hot and dry summer monsoon extremes in India.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,3(1).
MLA	Mishra V.,et al."Future exacerbation of hot and dry summer monsoon extremes in India".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 3.1(2020).