气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500

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DOI	10.1038/s41612-020-00144-9
	Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)
	Diodato N.; Ljungqvist F.C.; Bellocchi G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	23973722
卷号	3 期号:1
英文摘要	Erosive storms constitute a major natural hazard. They are frequently a source of erosional processes impacting the natural landscape with considerable economic consequences. Understanding the aggressiveness of storms (or rainfall erosivity) is essential for the awareness of environmental hazards as well as for knowledge of how to potentially control them. Reconstructing historical changes in rainfall erosivity is challenging as it requires continuous time-series of short-term rainfall events. Here, we present the first homogeneous environmental (1500–2019 CE) record, with the annual resolution, of storm aggressiveness for the Po River region, northern Italy, which is to date also the longest such time-series of erosivity in the world. To generate the annual erosivity time-series, we developed a model consistent with a sample (for 1981–2015 CE) of detailed Revised Universal Soil Loss Erosion-based data obtained for the study region. The modelled data show a noticeable descending trend in rainfall erosivity together with a limited inter-annual variability until ~1708, followed by a slowly increasing erosivity trend. This trend has continued until the present day, along with a larger inter-annual variability, likely associated with an increased occurrence of short-term, cyclone-related, extreme rainfall events. These findings call for the need of strengthening the environmental support capacity of the Po River landscape and beyond in the face of predicted future changing erosive storm patterns. © 2020, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	erodibility; extreme event; historical record; monitoring; natural hazard; prediction; rainfall; reconstruction; Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation; Italy; Po River
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178019
作者单位	Met European Research Observatory – International Affiliates Program of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Via Monte Pino snc, Benevento, 82100, Italy; Department of History, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 106 91, Sweden; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 106 91, Sweden; Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Linneanum, Thunbergsvägen 2, 752 38, Uppsala, Sweden; UCA, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l’Écosystème Prairial (UREP), Clermont-Ferrand, 63000, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Diodato N.,Ljungqvist F.C.,Bellocchi G.. Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)[J],2020,3(1).
APA	Diodato N.,Ljungqvist F.C.,&Bellocchi G..(2020).Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019).npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,3(1).
MLA	Diodato N.,et al."Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 3.1(2020).