气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41612-020-00158-3
	Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India
	Mishra V.; Aadhar S.; Mahto S.S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	23973722
卷号	4 期号:1
英文摘要	Flash droughts cause rapid depletion in root-zone soil moisture and severely affect crop health and irrigation water demands. However, their occurrence and impacts in the current and future climate in India remain unknown. Here we use observations and model simulations from the large ensemble of Community Earth System Model to quantify the risk of flash droughts in India. Root-zone soil moisture simulations conducted using Variable Infiltration Capacity model show that flash droughts predominantly occur during the summer monsoon season (June–September) and driven by the intraseasonal variability of monsoon rainfall. Positive temperature anomalies during the monsoon break rapidly deplete soil moisture, which is further exacerbated by the land-atmospheric feedback. The worst flash drought in the observed (1951–2016) climate occurred in 1979, affecting more than 40% of the country. The frequency of concurrent hot and dry extremes is projected to rise by about five-fold, causing approximately seven-fold increase in flash droughts like 1979 by the end of the 21st century. The increased risk of flash droughts in the future is attributed to intraseasonal variability of the summer monsoon rainfall and anthropogenic warming, which can have deleterious implications for crop production, irrigation demands, and groundwater abstraction in India. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	anthropogenic effect; climate change; climate modeling; computer simulation; crop production; crop yield; drought; extreme event; future prospect; groundwater abstraction; monsoon; numerical model; seasonal variation; summer; warming; water demand; weather forecasting; India
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178013
作者单位	Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Gandhinagar, India; Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Gandhinagar, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mishra V.,Aadhar S.,Mahto S.S.. Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India[J],2021,4(1).
APA	Mishra V.,Aadhar S.,&Mahto S.S..(2021).Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,4(1).
MLA	Mishra V.,et al."Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 4.1(2021).