气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach

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DOI	10.1038/s41612-021-00176-9
	Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach
	Jalowska A.M.; Spero T.L.; Bowden J.H.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	23973722
卷号	4 期号:1
英文摘要	In the past quarter-century, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) experienced several devastating tropical cyclones that led to widespread flooding and damage. Historical climate records reflect an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events across the eastern U.S., which is projected to continue to increase throughout the twenty-first century. Potential changes to extreme rainfall across ENC are explored and quantified for 2025–2100 for three tropical cyclones using an approach based on relative changes in future extreme rainfall frequencies (return periods) from dynamically downscaled projections. Maximum rainfall intensities at ‘2100’ could increase locally by 168%, with widespread regional increases in total rainfall up to 44%. Although these magnitudes exceed the consensus in the literature, the values here are comparable to the most extreme rainfall events observed in the U.S. during the early twenty-first century, which suggests that the intensity of projected future events is already a present-day reality. © 2021, This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	extreme event; future prospect; precipitation intensity; return period; trend analysis; tropical cyclone; North Carolina; United States; Rosa carolina carolina
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177990
作者单位	Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States; Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jalowska A.M.,Spero T.L.,Bowden J.H.. Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach[J],2021,4(1).
APA	Jalowska A.M.,Spero T.L.,&Bowden J.H..(2021).Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,4(1).
MLA	Jalowska A.M.,et al."Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 4.1(2021).