气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment part II: Projected response to anthropogenic warming

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DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1
	Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment part II: Projected response to anthropogenic warming
	Knutson T.; Camargo S.J.; Chan J.C.L.; Emanuel K.; Ho C.-H.; Kossin J.; Mohapatra M.; Satoh M.; Sugi M.; Walsh K.; Wu L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E303
结束页码	E322
卷号	101 期号:3
英文摘要	Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate rising global TC risk for some metrics that are projected to impact multiple regions. A 2°C anthropogenic global warming is projected to impact TC activity as follows. 1) The most confident TC-related projection is that sea level rise accompanying the warming will lead to higher storm inundation levels, assuming all other factors are unchanged. 2) For TC precipitation rates, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase globally, with a median projected increase of 14%, or close to the rate of tropical water vapor increase with warming, at constant relative humidity. 3) For TC intensity, 10 of 11 authors had at least medium-to-high confidence that the global average will increase. The median projected increase in lifetime maximum surface wind speeds is about 5% (range: 1%-10%) in available higher-resolution studies. 4) For the global proportion (as opposed to frequency) of TCs that reach very intense (category 4-5) levels, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase, with a median projected change of +13%. Author opinion was more mixed and confidence levels lower for the following projections: 5) a further poleward expansion of the latitude of maximum TC intensity in the western North Pacific; 6) a decrease of global TC frequency, as projected in most studies; 7) an increase in global very intense TC frequency (category 4-5), seen most prominently in higher-resolution models; and 8) a slowdown in TC translation speed. ©2020 American Meteorological Society.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Hurricanes; Sea level; Storms; Tropics; Anthropogenic global warming; Anthropogenic warming; Climate change assessment; Confidence levels; Inundation levels; Precipitation rates; Surface wind speed; Western North Pacific; Climate models
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177986
作者单位	NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Center for Weather and Climate, Madison, WI, United States; India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; School of Earth Sciences, University of MelbourneVIC, Australia; Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Knutson T.,Camargo S.J.,Chan J.C.L.,et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment part II: Projected response to anthropogenic warming[J],2020,101(3).
APA	Knutson T..,Camargo S.J..,Chan J.C.L..,Emanuel K..,Ho C.-H..,...&Wu L..(2020).Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment part II: Projected response to anthropogenic warming.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(3).
MLA	Knutson T.,et al."Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment part II: Projected response to anthropogenic warming".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.3(2020).