气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Possible increased frequency of ENSO-related dry and wet conditions over some major watersheds in a warming climate

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DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0258.1
	Possible increased frequency of ENSO-related dry and wet conditions over some major watersheds in a warming climate
	Sun Q.; Miao C.; Kouchak A.A.; Mallakpour I.; Ji D.; Duan Q.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E409
结束页码	E426
卷号	101 期号:4
英文摘要	Predicting the changes in teleconnection patterns and related hydroclimate extremes can provide vital information necessary to adapt to the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study uses the outputs of global climate models to assess the changes in ENSO-related dry/wet patterns and the frequency of severe dry/wet events. The results show anomalous precipitation responding asymmetrically to La Niña and El Niño, indicating the teleconnections may not simply be strengthened. A "dry to drier, wet to wetter" annual anomalous precipitation pattern was projected during La Niña phases in some regions, with drier conditions over southern North America, southern South America, and southern central Asia, and wetter conditions in Southeast Asia and Australia. These results are robust, with agreement from the 26 models and from a subset of 8 models selected for their good performance in capturing observed patterns. However, we did not observe a similar strengthening of anomalous precipitation during future El Niño phases, for which the uncertainties in the projected influences are large. Under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario, 45 river basins under El Niño conditions and 39 river basins under La Niña conditions were predicted to experience an increase in the frequency of severe dry events; similarly, 59 river basins under El Niño conditions and 61 river basins under La Niña conditions were predicted to have an increase in the frequency of severe wet events, suggesting a likely increase in the risk of floods. Our results highlight the implications of changes in ENSO patterns for natural hazards, disaster management, and engineering infrastructure. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climatology; Disaster prevention; Disasters; Floods; Risk perception; Rivers; Watersheds; Dry and wet conditions; Emissions scenarios; Engineering infrastructure; Global climate model; Precipitation patterns; Southern oscillation; Southern south america; Teleconnection patterns; Climate models
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177904
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun Q.,Miao C.,Kouchak A.A.,et al. Possible increased frequency of ENSO-related dry and wet conditions over some major watersheds in a warming climate[J],2020,101(4).
APA	Sun Q.,Miao C.,Kouchak A.A.,Mallakpour I.,Ji D.,&Duan Q..(2020).Possible increased frequency of ENSO-related dry and wet conditions over some major watersheds in a warming climate.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(4).
MLA	Sun Q.,et al."Possible increased frequency of ENSO-related dry and wet conditions over some major watersheds in a warming climate".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.4(2020).