气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The extended-range tornado activity forecast (ERTAF) project

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0188.1
	The extended-range tornado activity forecast (ERTAF) project
	Gensini V.A.; Barrett B.S.; Allen J.T.; Gold D.; Sirvatka P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E700
结束页码	E709
卷号	101 期号:6
英文摘要	Large-scale weather patterns favorable for tornado occurrence have been understood for many decades. Yet prediction of tornadoes, especially at extended lead periods of more than a few days, remains an arduous task, partly due to the space and time scales involved. Recent research has shown that tropical convection, sea surface temperatures, and the Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum can induce jet stream configurations that may increase or decrease the probability of tornado frequency across the United States. Applying this recent theoretical work in practice, on 1 March 2015, the authors began the Extended-Range Tornado Activity Forecast (ERTAF) project, with the following goals: 1) to have a map room-style discussion of the anticipated atmospheric state in the 2-3-week lead window; 2) to predict categorical level of tornado activity in that lead window; and 3) to learn from the forecasts through experience by identifying strengths and weaknesses in the methods, as well as identifying any potential scientific knowledge gaps. Over the last five years, the authors have shown skill in predicting U.S. tornado activity two to three weeks in advance during boreal spring. Unsurprisingly, skill is shown to be greater for forecasts spanning week 2 versus week 3. This manuscript documents these forecasting efforts, provides verification statistics, and shares the challenges and lessons learned from predicting tornado activity on the subseasonal time scale. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Oceanography; Surface waters; Tornadoes; Boreal Spring; Extended range; Recent researches; Scientific knowledge; Sea surface temperature (SST); Space and time; Tropical convection; Weather patterns; Forecasting
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177881
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gensini V.A.,Barrett B.S.,Allen J.T.,et al. The extended-range tornado activity forecast (ERTAF) project[J],2020,101(6).
APA	Gensini V.A.,Barrett B.S.,Allen J.T.,Gold D.,&Sirvatka P..(2020).The extended-range tornado activity forecast (ERTAF) project.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(6).
MLA	Gensini V.A.,et al."The extended-range tornado activity forecast (ERTAF) project".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.6(2020).