气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Practically perfect hindcasts of severe convective storms

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DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0321.1
	Practically perfect hindcasts of severe convective storms
	Gensini V.A.; Haberlie A.M.; Marsh P.T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E1259
结束页码	E1278
卷号	101 期号:8
英文摘要	This study presents and examines a modern climatology of U.S. severe convective storm frequency using a kernel density estimate to showcase various aspects of climatological risk. Results are presented in the context of specified event probability thresholds that correspond to definitions used at the NOAA/NWS's Storm Prediction Center following a practically perfect hindcast approach. Spatial climatologies presented herein are closely related to previous research. Spatiotemporal changes were examined by splitting the study period (1979-2018) into two 20-yr epochs and calculating deltas. Portions of the southern Great Plains and High Plains have seen a decrease in counts of tornado event threshold probability, whereas increases have been documented in the middle Mississippi River valley region. Large hail, and especially damaging convective wind gusts, have shown increases between the two periods over a majority of the CONUS. To temporally showcase local climatologies, event threshold days are shown for 12 select U.S. cities. Finally, data created and used in this study are available as an open-source repository for future research applications. © 2020 American Meteorological Society For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climatology; Precipitation (meteorology); Risk perception; Kernel density estimate; Middle mississippi rivers; Modern climatology; Open source repositories; Research applications; Southern great plains; Spatio-temporal changes; Threshold probability; Storms
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177826
作者单位	Department of Geographic and Atmospheric Sciences, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, United States; Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States; NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gensini V.A.,Haberlie A.M.,Marsh P.T.. Practically perfect hindcasts of severe convective storms[J],2020,101(8).
APA	Gensini V.A.,Haberlie A.M.,&Marsh P.T..(2020).Practically perfect hindcasts of severe convective storms.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(8).
MLA	Gensini V.A.,et al."Practically perfect hindcasts of severe convective storms".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.8(2020).