气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): West coast forecast challenges and development of atmospheric river reconnaissance

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DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0183.1
	West coast forecast challenges and development of atmospheric river reconnaissance
	Martin Ralph F.; Cannon F.; Tallapragada V.; Davis C.A.; Doyle J.D.; Pappenberger F.; Subramanian A.; Wilson A.M.; Lavers D.A.; Reynolds C.A.; Haase J.S.; Centurioni L.; Ingleby B.; Rutz J.J.; Cordeira J.M.; Zheng M.; Hecht C.; Kawzenuk B.; Monache L.D.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E1357
结束页码	E1377
卷号	101 期号:8
英文摘要	Water management and flood control are major challenges in the western United States. They are heavily influenced by atmospheric river (AR) storms that produce both beneficial water supply and hazards; for example, 84% of all flood damages in the West (up to 99% in key areas) are associated with ARs. However, AR landfall forecast position errors can exceed 200 km at even 1-day lead time and yet many watersheds are <100 km across, which contributes to issues such as the 2017 Oroville Dam spillway incident and regularly to large flood forecast errors. Combined with the rise of wildfires and deadly post-wildfire debris flows, such as Montecito (2018), the need for better AR forecasts is urgent. Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) was developed as a research and operations partnership to address these needs. It combines new observations, modeling, data assimilation, and forecast verification methods to improve the science and predictions of landfalling ARs. ARs over the northeast Pacific are measured using dropsondes from up to three aircraft simultaneously. Additionally, airborne radio occultation is being tested, and drifting buoys with pressure sensors are deployed. AR targeting and data collection methods have been developed, assimilation and forecast impact experiments are ongoing, and better understanding of AR dynamics is emerging. AR Recon is led by the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes and NWS/NCEP. The effort's core partners include the U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, NCAR, ECMWF, and multiple academic institutions. AR Recon is included in the “National Winter Season Operations Plan” to support improved outcomes for emergency preparedness and water management in the West. © 2020 American Meteorological Society
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aircraft accidents; Fires; Flood control; Floods; Rivers; Water management; Water supply; Academic institutions; Data assimilation; Data collection method; Emergency preparedness; Forecast verification methods; Impact experiment; Radio occultations; Western United States; Weather forecasting
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177781
作者单位	Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA, United States; NOAA, NWS, NCEP, Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; U.S. Naval Research Laboratory MonterreyCA, United States; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA, United States; NOAA, NWS, Western Region Headquarters, Salt Lake City, UT, United States; Plymouth State University, Plymouth, NH, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Martin Ralph F.,Cannon F.,Tallapragada V.,et al. West coast forecast challenges and development of atmospheric river reconnaissance[J],2021,101(8).
APA	Martin Ralph F..,Cannon F..,Tallapragada V..,Davis C.A..,Doyle J.D..,...&Monache L.D..(2021).West coast forecast challenges and development of atmospheric river reconnaissance.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(8).
MLA	Martin Ralph F.,et al."West coast forecast challenges and development of atmospheric river reconnaissance".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.8(2021).