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| DOI | 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0019.1 |
| Seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century | |
| Weisheimer A.; Befort D.J.; MacLeod D.; Palmer T.; O'Reilly C.; Strømmen K. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 00030007 |
| 起始页码 | E1413 |
| 结束页码 | E1426 |
| 卷号 | 101期号:8 |
| 英文摘要 | Forecasts of seasonal climate anomalies using physically based global circulation models are routinely made at operational meteorological centers around the world. A crucial component of any seasonal forecast system is the set of retrospective forecasts, or hindcasts, from past years that are used to estimate skill and to calibrate the forecasts. Hindcasts are usually produced over a period of around 20-30 years. However, recent studies have demonstrated that seasonal forecast skill can undergo pronounced multidecadal variations. These results imply that relatively short hindcasts are not adequate for reliably testing seasonal forecasts and that small hindcast sample sizes can potentially lead to skill estimates that are not robust. Here we present new and unprecedented 110-year-long coupled hindcasts of the next season over the period 1901-2010. Their performance for the recent period is in good agreement with those of operational forecast models. While skill for ENSO is very high during recent decades, it is markedly reduced during the 1930s-1950s. Skill at the beginning of the twentieth century is, however, as high as for recent high-skill periods. Consistent with findings in atmosphere-only hindcasts, a midcentury drop in forecast skill is found for a range of atmospheric fields, including large-scale indices such as the NAO and the PNA patterns. As with ENSO, skill scores for these indices recover in the early twentieth century, suggesting that the midcentury drop in skill is not due to a lack of good observational data. A public dissemination platform for our hindcast data is available, and we invite the scientific community to explore them. © 2020 American Meteorological Society |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | Climate models; Climatology; Drops; Atmospheric fields; Global circulation model; Multidecadal variations; Observational data; Operational forecasts; Scientific community; Seasonal forecasts; Twentieth century; Weather forecasting |
| 来源期刊 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177779 |
| 作者单位 | National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Weisheimer A.,Befort D.J.,MacLeod D.,et al. Seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century[J],2021,101(8). |
| APA | Weisheimer A.,Befort D.J.,MacLeod D.,Palmer T.,O'Reilly C.,&Strømmen K..(2021).Seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(8). |
| MLA | Weisheimer A.,et al."Seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.8(2021). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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