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DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0165.1
	Is weather chaotic? Coexistence of chaos and order within a generalized lorenz model
	Shen B.-W.; Pielke R.A.; Zeng X.; Baik J.-J.; Faghih-Naini S.; Cui J.; Atlas R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E148
结束页码	E158
卷号	102 期号:1
英文摘要	Over 50 years since Lorenz’s 1963 study and a follow-up presentation in 1972, the statement “weather is chaotic” has been well accepted. Such a view turns our attention from regularity associated with Laplace’s view of determinism to irregularity associated with chaos. In contrast to single-type chaotic solutions, recent studies using a generalized Lorenz model (GLM) have focused on the coexistence of chaotic and regular solutions that appear within the same model using the same modeling configurations but different initial conditions. The results, with attractor coexistence, suggest that the entirety of weather possesses a dual nature of chaos and order with distinct predictability. In this study, based on the GLM, we illustrate the following two mechanisms that may enable or modulate two kinds of attractor coexistence and, thus, contribute to distinct predictability: 1) the aggregated negative feedback of small-scale convective processes that can produce stable nontrivial equilibrium points and, thus, enable the appearance of stable steady-state solutions and their coexistence with chaotic or nonlinear oscillatory solutions, referred to as the first and second kinds of attractor coexistence; and 2) the modulation of large-scale time-varying forcing (heating) that can determine (or modulate) the alternative appearance of two kinds of attractor coexistence. Based on our results, we then discuss new opportunities and challenges in predictability research with the aim of improving predictions at extended-range time scales, as well as subseasonal to seasonal time scales. ©2021 American Meteorological Society
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Earth atmosphere; Meteorology; Chaotic solutions; Generalized Lorenz model; Initial conditions; Model configuration; Non-trivial equilibrium; Oscillatory solutions; Regular solution; Stable steady state; Chaos theory
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177776
作者单位	Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, San Diego, California, University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, and Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen–Nuremberg, Erlangen, Germany; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Department of Computer Sciences, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United States; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/AOML, Miami, FL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shen B.-W.,Pielke R.A.,Zeng X.,et al. Is weather chaotic? Coexistence of chaos and order within a generalized lorenz model[J],2021,102(1).
APA	Shen B.-W..,Pielke R.A..,Zeng X..,Baik J.-J..,Faghih-Naini S..,...&Atlas R..(2021).Is weather chaotic? Coexistence of chaos and order within a generalized lorenz model.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,102(1).
MLA	Shen B.-W.,et al."Is weather chaotic? Coexistence of chaos and order within a generalized lorenz model".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102.1(2021).