气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): GLOBAL MARKET and ECONOMIC WELFARE IMPLICATIONS of CHANGES in AGRICULTURAL YIELDS DUE to CLIMATE CHANGE

CCPortal

DOI	10.1142/S2010007820500050
	GLOBAL MARKET and ECONOMIC WELFARE IMPLICATIONS of CHANGES in AGRICULTURAL YIELDS DUE to CLIMATE CHANGE
	Calvin K.; Mignone B.K.; Kheshgi H.S.; Snyder A.C.; Patel P.; Wise M.; Clarke L.E.; Edmonds J.A.E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	20100078
卷号	11 期号:1
英文摘要	The economic welfare effects of climate change on global agriculture will be mediated by several complex biophysical and economic processes. For a given emissions scenario, these include: (1) the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing, (2) the response of crop yields to climate system and carbon dioxide changes, given baseline improvements in crop yields, (3) the response of agricultural markets to crop yield changes, and (4) the economic welfare implications of such market responses. In this paper, we use information about the first two processes from available climate-crop model comparison studies to analyze implications for the third and fourth processes. Applying the range of crop yield changes in a Global Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM) highlights several important economic relationships. First, we find a consistent relationship between global cropland area and yield change that is approximately orthogonal to the relationship between regional cropland area and yield change. Second, we find that the change in economic welfare, expressed as total surplus change per unit economic output, peaks during the 21st century. Third, we find that, at the global level, changes in yield affect both producer surplus and consumer surplus. Specifically, surplus changes to producers and consumers are always opposite in sign, although which economic actors gain or lose varies with the sign of yield change for any given commodity. Taken together, these results contribute to a growing body of research on climate-induced changes on agriculture by highlighting several economic relationships that are robust to differences in the underlying biophysical responses. © 2020 The Author(s).
英文关键词	agricultural economics; climate change impacts; Integrated assessment
来源期刊	Climate Change Economics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176987
作者单位	Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD 20740, United States; ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ 08801, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Calvin K.,Mignone B.K.,Kheshgi H.S.,et al. GLOBAL MARKET and ECONOMIC WELFARE IMPLICATIONS of CHANGES in AGRICULTURAL YIELDS DUE to CLIMATE CHANGE[J],2020,11(1).
APA	Calvin K..,Mignone B.K..,Kheshgi H.S..,Snyder A.C..,Patel P..,...&Edmonds J.A.E..(2020).GLOBAL MARKET and ECONOMIC WELFARE IMPLICATIONS of CHANGES in AGRICULTURAL YIELDS DUE to CLIMATE CHANGE.Climate Change Economics,11(1).
MLA	Calvin K.,et al."GLOBAL MARKET and ECONOMIC WELFARE IMPLICATIONS of CHANGES in AGRICULTURAL YIELDS DUE to CLIMATE CHANGE".Climate Change Economics 11.1(2020).