气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

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DOI	10.5194/esd-11-579-2020
	Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
	Tilmes S.; G. MacMartin D.; T. M. Lenaerts J.; Van Kampenhout L.; Muntjewerf L.; Xia L.; S. Harrison C.; M. Krumhardt K.; J. Mills M.; Kravitz B.; Robock A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21904979
起始页码	579
结束页码	601
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 ĝC above 1850-1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30ĝ N, 15ĝ N, 15ĝ S, and 30ĝ S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-To-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 ĝC vs. 2.0 ĝC). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of experiments that include strong mitigation and carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application are proposed to assess the robustness of impacts on societies and ecosystems. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
scopus关键词	Aerosols; Atmospheric temperature; Carbon dioxide; Ecosystems; Global warming; Photosynthesis; Phytoplankton; Precipitation (meteorology); Sea level; Sulfur dioxide; Surface properties; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Global surface temperature; Global-mean temperature; Net primary productivity; Precipitation patterns; Surface air temperatures; Whole atmosphere community climate models; Climate models; aerosol composition; aerosol formation; carbon dioxide; comparative study; cooling; mitigation; sea surface temperature; stratosphere
来源期刊	Earth System Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176862
作者单位	Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands; Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States; School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX, United States; Climate Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States; Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland,...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tilmes S.,G. MacMartin D.,T. M. Lenaerts J.,et al. Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering[J],2020,11(3).
APA	Tilmes S..,G. MacMartin D..,T. M. Lenaerts J..,Van Kampenhout L..,Muntjewerf L..,...&Robock A..(2020).Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.Earth System Dynamics,11(3).
MLA	Tilmes S.,et al."Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering".Earth System Dynamics 11.3(2020).