气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A factor-based bottom-up approach for the long-term electricity consumption estimation in the Japanese residential sector

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110750
	A factor-based bottom-up approach for the long-term electricity consumption estimation in the Japanese residential sector
	Yan Y.; Zhang H.; Long Y.; Zhou X.; Liao Q.; Xu N.; Liang Y.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	3014797
卷号	270
英文摘要	Recent years, the energy consumption and carbon emissions released from the residential sector have increased rapidly due to the improvement of living standards. Japan, as one of the most developed countries worldwide, is found to be the fourth largest CO2 emitter in the world. Meanwhile, Japan is currently promoting social electrification from varied aspects. And this action further brings the household residential consumption to the vital place for overall energy conservation and emission reduction plans. Although electricity consumption and prediction analysis have been widely discussed. However, previous studies mainly focused on the estimation and analysis of energy consumption at the national level, without enough discussion from prefecture-level insights. To bridge this knowledge gap, this study established a factor-based bottom-up model to estimate the electricity consumption and carbon emissions during the 2015–2040 periods in the Japanese residential sector, considering the prefectural characteristics including per capita gross domestic product, population size, household size, residential floor space area, lifestyle, weather condition, and transition effect of appliance in the future. Nine scenarios that combine three levels of household size and three levels of growth of per capita gross domestic product are taken into account to estimate the electricity consumption for space heating and cooling, water heating, cooking, and appliances. Results indicate that the total residential electricity consumption will reach a peak during 2020s. The total carbon emissions will keep decreasing by 51.14–72.16 Mt between 2015 and 2040. Based on the results of this paper, policy recommendations are given for the Japanese government. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Bottom-up model; Carbon emissions; Electricity consumption; Japan; Residential sector
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; carbon dioxide; bottom-up approach; carbon emission; electricity; energy conservation; energy use; environmental economics; Gross Domestic Product; population size; prediction; residential energy; Article; carbon footprint; cooking; cooling; electricity; energy conservation; environmental planning; environmental policy; government; gross national product; heating; household; Japan; lifestyle; population size; residential area; water temperature; weather; Japan; Japan; Carbon Dioxide; Electricity; Gross Domestic Product; Heating; Japan
来源期刊	Journal of Environmental Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176806
作者单位	Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Fuxue Road No. 18, Changping District, Beijing, 102249, China; Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8563, Japan; Institute for Future Initiatives, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo, 113-8654, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yan Y.,Zhang H.,Long Y.,et al. A factor-based bottom-up approach for the long-term electricity consumption estimation in the Japanese residential sector[J],2020,270.
APA	Yan Y..,Zhang H..,Long Y..,Zhou X..,Liao Q..,...&Liang Y..(2020).A factor-based bottom-up approach for the long-term electricity consumption estimation in the Japanese residential sector.Journal of Environmental Management,270.
MLA	Yan Y.,et al."A factor-based bottom-up approach for the long-term electricity consumption estimation in the Japanese residential sector".Journal of Environmental Management 270(2020).