气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions for aligning with the Paris goals

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104865
	Implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions for aligning with the Paris goals
	Pan X.; Chen W.; Zhou S.; Wang L.; Dai J.; Zhang Q.; Zheng X.; Wang H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1409883
卷号	90
英文摘要	In the international community, there are many appeals to ratcheting up the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs), in order to narrow the 2030 global emissions gap with the Paris goals. Near-term mitigation has a direct impact on the required efforts beyond 2030 to control warming within 2°C or 1.5°C successfully. In this study, implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions until 2100 for aligning with the Paris goals, are quantified using a refined Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with six mitigation scenarios. Results show that intensifying near-term mitigation will alleviate China's transitional challenges during 2030–2050 and long-term reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies (CDR). Each five-year earlier peaking of CO2 allows almost a five-year later carbon neutrality of China's energy system. To align with 2°C (1.5°C), peaking in 2025 instead of 2030 reduces the requirement of CDR over the century by 17% (13%). Intensifying near-term mitigation also tends to have economic benefits to China's Paris-aligned energy transitions. Under 2°C (1.5°C), peaking in 2025 instead of 2030, with larger near-term mitigation costs by 1.3 (1.6) times, has the potential to reduce China's aggregate mitigation costs throughout the century by 4% (6%). Although in what way China's NDC is to be updated is determined by decision-makers, transitional and economic benefits suggest China to try its best to pursue more ambitious near-term mitigation in accordance with its latest national circumstances and development needs. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Chin's energy system; Integrated assessment model; Long-term transition; Near-term mitigation; The Paris goals
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Clock and data recovery circuits (CDR circuits); Decision making; Assessment models; Carbon dioxide removal; Carbon neutralities; Development needs; Economic benefits; Energy transitions; International community; Mitigation costs; Economic and social effects; alternative energy; carbon emission; environmental policy; global warming; mitigation; model; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; China
来源期刊	Energy Economics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176620
作者单位	School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, 102249, China; Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Economics & Technology Research Institute, China National Petroleum Corporation, Beijing, 100724, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pan X.,Chen W.,Zhou S.,et al. Implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions for aligning with the Paris goals[J],2020,90.
APA	Pan X..,Chen W..,Zhou S..,Wang L..,Dai J..,...&Wang H..(2020).Implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions for aligning with the Paris goals.Energy Economics,90.
MLA	Pan X.,et al."Implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions for aligning with the Paris goals".Energy Economics 90(2020).