气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111642
	Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal
	Belbute J.M.; Pereira A.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	3014215
卷号	144
英文摘要	We provide reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from burning fuel fossil and cement production in Portugal based on an ARFIMA model approach and using annual data from 1950 to 2017. Our reference projections suggest a pattern of decarbonization that will cause the reduction of 3.3 Mt until 2030 and 5.1 Mt between 2030 and 2050. This scenario allows us to assess effort required by the new IPCC goals to ensure carbon neutrality by 2050. For this objective to be achieved it is necessary for emissions to be reduced by 39.9 Mt by 2050. Our results suggest that of these, only 8.4 Mt will result from the inertia of the national emissions system. The remaining reduction on emissions of 31.5 Mt of CO2 will require additional policy efforts. Accordingly, our results suggest that about 65.5% of the reductions necessary to achieve IPCC goals require deliberate policy efforts. Finally, the presence in the data of long memory with mean reversion suggests that policies must be persistent to ensure that these reductions in emissions are also permanent. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	ARFIMA; CO2 emissions; IPCC emission Targets; Long memory; Portugal
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Cement industry; Cements; ARFIMA models; Carbon neutralities; Cement production; CO2 emissions; Fossil fuel combustion; Long memory; Mean reversion; Portugal; Fossil fuels; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; cement (construction material); combustion; emission control; forecasting method; fossil fuel; Portugal
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176608
作者单位	Department of Economics, University of Évora, Portugal; Center for Advanced Studies in Management and Economics – CEFAGE, Portugal; Department of Economics, William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23187, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Belbute J.M.,Pereira A.M.. Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal[J],2020,144.
APA	Belbute J.M.,&Pereira A.M..(2020).Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal.Energy Policy,144.
MLA	Belbute J.M.,et al."Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal".Energy Policy 144(2020).