气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Influencing factors and combined scenario prediction of carbon emission peaks in megacities in China: Based on Threshold-STIRPAT Model [中国超大城市碳排放达峰的影响因素及组合情景预测-基于门限-STIRPAT模型的研究]

CCPortal

DOI	10.13671/j.hjkxxb.2019.0290
	Influencing factors and combined scenario prediction of carbon emission peaks in megacities in China: Based on Threshold-STIRPAT Model [中国超大城市碳排放达峰的影响因素及组合情景预测-基于门限-STIRPAT模型的研究]
	Wang Y.; Xu Z.; Zhang Y.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	2532468
起始页码	4284
结束页码	4292
卷号	39 期号:12
英文摘要	Cities are an important source of carbon emissions in China, and the research on the carbon peaking of megacities is of great practical significance for other cities and the whole country to achieve the carbon peaking goal. Six megacities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Chongqing, were taken as research objects, with energy intensity as the threshold variable. The threshold -STIRPAT model was established to first determine the driving factors of carbon emission in six megacities, and then predict the peak carbon emission of each city under 27 scenarios. The results showed that: ①Population, per capita GDP and energy intensity played a positive role in promoting carbon emissions in megacities, with the largest impact of population, followed by energy intensity, and the least impact of per capita GDP. ②The impact of energy intensity on carbon dioxide emissions was characterized by a staged change. ③Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing had reached their carbon peaks in the scenario of high energy intensity decline rates; Tianjin, Guangzhou (other than the most relaxed high-high-high scenario) and Shenzhen (other than the most relaxed high-high-high scenario) can reach their peaks by 2030. If energy intensity declines at a medium rate, carbon emissions in six megacities cannot be guaranteed to peak by 2030. If energy intensity declines at a low rate, none of the six megacities can reach their peaks by 2030. This study is helpful to clarify the influencing factors of the carbon emission of megacities, which has reference significance for other cities to achieve the carbon emission peaks as soon as possible, and provides feasible research ideas for the national goal of the carbon emission peaks., Science Press. All right reserved.
英文关键词	Carbon emission peaks; Megacities; Scenario prediction; Threshold-STIRPAT model
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; carbon emission; energy intensity; Gross Domestic Product; megacity; numerical model; China
来源期刊	Huanjing Kexue Xuebao/Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176275
作者单位	School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, 116025, China; Post-Doctoral Mobile Station, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, 116025, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang Y.,Xu Z.,Zhang Y.. Influencing factors and combined scenario prediction of carbon emission peaks in megacities in China: Based on Threshold-STIRPAT Model [中国超大城市碳排放达峰的影响因素及组合情景预测-基于门限-STIRPAT模型的研究][J],2019,39(12).
APA	Wang Y.,Xu Z.,&Zhang Y..(2019).Influencing factors and combined scenario prediction of carbon emission peaks in megacities in China: Based on Threshold-STIRPAT Model [中国超大城市碳排放达峰的影响因素及组合情景预测-基于门限-STIRPAT模型的研究].Huanjing Kexue Xuebao/Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,39(12).
MLA	Wang Y.,et al."Influencing factors and combined scenario prediction of carbon emission peaks in megacities in China: Based on Threshold-STIRPAT Model [中国超大城市碳排放达峰的影响因素及组合情景预测-基于门限-STIRPAT模型的研究]".Huanjing Kexue Xuebao/Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae 39.12(2019).