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DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9
	Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period
	Gillett N.P.; Kirchmeier-Young M.; Ribes A.; Shiogama H.; Hegerl G.C.; Knutti R.; Gastineau G.; John J.G.; Li L.; Nazarenko L.; Rosenbloom N.; Seland Ø.; Wu T.; Yukimoto S.; Ziehn T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
英文摘要	Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 °C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 °C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 °C and −0.7 to −0.1 °C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171592
作者单位	Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; LOCEAN, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris, France; NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States; Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; O...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gillett N.P.,Kirchmeier-Young M.,Ribes A.,et al. Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period[J],2021.
APA	Gillett N.P..,Kirchmeier-Young M..,Ribes A..,Shiogama H..,Hegerl G.C..,...&Ziehn T..(2021).Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period.Nature Climate Change.
MLA	Gillett N.P.,et al."Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period".Nature Climate Change (2021).