气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The interdecadal shift of ENSO properties in 1999/2000: A review

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0316.1
	The interdecadal shift of ENSO properties in 1999/2000: A review
	Hu Z.-Z.; Kumar A.; Huang B.; Zhu J.; L'Heureux M.; McPhaden M.J.; Yu J.-Y.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	4441
结束页码	4462
卷号	33 期号:11
英文摘要	Following the interdecadal shift of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties that occurred in 1976/77, another regime shift happened in 1999/2000 that featured a decrease of variability and an increase in ENSO frequency. Specifically, the frequency spectrum of Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature shifted from dominant variations at quasi-quadrennial (∼4 yr) periods during 1979-99 to weaker fluctuations at quasi-biennial (∼2 yr) periods during 2000-18. Also, the spectrum of warm water volume (WWV)index had almost no peak in 2000-18, implying a nearly white noise process. The regime shift was associated with an enhanced zonal gradient of the mean state, awestward shift in the atmosphere-ocean coupling in the tropical Pacific, and an increase in the static stability of the troposphere. This shift had several important implications. The whitening of the subsurface ocean temperature led to a breakdown of the relationship between WWV and ENSO, reducing the efficacy of WWV as a key predictor for ENSO and thus leading to a decrease in ENSO prediction skill. Another consequence of the higher ENSO frequency after 1999/2000 was that the forecasted peak of sea surface temperature anomaly often lagged that observed by several months, and the lag increased with the lead time. The ENSO regime shift may have altered ENSO influences on extratropical climate. Thus, the regime shift of ENSO in 1999/2000 as well as the model default may account for the higher false alarm and lower skill in predicting ENSO since 1999/2000. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Atmospheric temperature; Oceanography; Submarine geophysics; Surface properties; Surface waters; White noise; Atmosphere-ocean coupling; Frequency spectra; Inter-decadal shifts; Sea surface temperature (SST); Sea surface temperature anomalies; Southern oscillation; Sub-surface ocean; White noise process; Climatology; atmosphere-ocean coupling; decadal variation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; sea surface temperature; temperature anomaly; troposphere; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171547
作者单位	Climate Prediction Center, NCEP, NWS, NOAA, College Park, MD, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; NOAA, Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hu Z.-Z.,Kumar A.,Huang B.,et al. The interdecadal shift of ENSO properties in 1999/2000: A review[J],2020,33(11).
APA	Hu Z.-Z..,Kumar A..,Huang B..,Zhu J..,L'Heureux M..,...&Yu J.-Y..(2020).The interdecadal shift of ENSO properties in 1999/2000: A review.Journal of Climate,33(11).
MLA	Hu Z.-Z.,et al."The interdecadal shift of ENSO properties in 1999/2000: A review".Journal of Climate 33.11(2020).