气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predictability of extratropical upper-tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere by its main modes of variability

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0122.1
	Predictability of extratropical upper-tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere by its main modes of variability
	Osman M.; Vera C.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	1405
结束页码	1421
卷号	33 期号:4
英文摘要	The predictability and forecast skill of the models participating in the Climate Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) database is assessed through evaluating the representation of the upper-tropospheric extratropical circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in winter and summer and its main modes of variability. In summer, the predictability of 200-hPa geopotential height anomalies mainly comes from the ability of the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM) to forecast the first three modes of interannual variability with high fidelity. The MMEM can reproduce not only the spatial patterns of these modes but also their temporal evolution. On the other hand, in JJA only the second and fourth modes of variability are predictable by the MMEM. These seasonal differences in the performance of the MMEM seem to be related to the role that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have in influencing the variability of each mode. Accordingly, modes that are strongly linked to tropical SST anomalies are better forecast by the MMEM and show less spread among models. The analysis of both 2-m temperature and precipitation anomalies in the SH associated with the predictable modes reveals that DJF predictable modes are accompanied by significant temperature anomalies. In particular, temperatures at polar (tropical) latitudes are significantly correlated with the first (second) mode. Furthermore, these links obtained with observations are also well forecast by the MMEM and can help to improve seasonal forecast of climate anomalies in those regions with low skill. Ó 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate models; Forecasting; Surface waters; Tropics; Troposphere; American meteorological societies; Extratropical circulation; Geopotential height anomalies; Interannual variability; Multi-model ensemble; Precipitation anomalies; Sea surface temperature anomalies; Tropospheric circulation; Oceanography; annual variation; atmospheric circulation; climate prediction; extratropical environment; sea surface temperature; seasonality; Southern Hemisphere; troposphere
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171451
作者单位	Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, CNRS, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI), Buenos Aires, Argentina
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Osman M.,Vera C.S.. Predictability of extratropical upper-tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere by its main modes of variability[J],2020,33(4).
APA	Osman M.,&Vera C.S..(2020).Predictability of extratropical upper-tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere by its main modes of variability.Journal of Climate,33(4).
MLA	Osman M.,et al."Predictability of extratropical upper-tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere by its main modes of variability".Journal of Climate 33.4(2020).