气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The forced response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation–Indian monsoon teleconnection in ensembles of earth system models

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0341.1
	The forced response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation–Indian monsoon teleconnection in ensembles of earth system models
	Bódai T.; Drótos G.; Herein M.; Lunkeit F.; Lucarini V.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	2163
结束页码	2182
卷号	33 期号:6
英文摘要	We study the teleconnection between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon (IM) in large ensemble simulations, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). We characterize ENSO by the June–August Niño-3 box-average SST and the IM by the June–September average precipitation over India, and define their teleconnection in a changing climate as an ensemble-wise correlation. To test robustness, we also consider somewhat different variables that can characterize ENSO and the IM. We utilize ensembles converged to the system’s snapshot attractor for analyzing possible changes in the teleconnection. Our main finding is that the teleconnection strength is typically increasing on the long term in view of appropriately revised ensemble-wise indices. Indices involving a more western part of the Pacific reveal, furthermore, a short-term but rather strong increase in strength followed by some decrease at the turn of the century. Using the station-based Southern Oscillation index (SOI) as opposed to area-based indices leads to the identification of somewhat more erratic trends, but the turn-of-the-century ‘‘bump’’ is well detectable with it. All this is in contrast, if not in contradiction, to the discussion in the literature of a weakening teleconnection in the late twentieth century. We show here that this discrepancy can be due to any of three reasons: 1) ensemble-wise and temporal correlation coefficients used in the literature are different quantities; 2) the temporal moving correlation has a high statistical variability but possibly also persistence; or 3) MPI-ESM does not represent the Earth system faithfully. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Atmospheric thermodynamics; Earth system model; Ensemble simulation; Indian summer monsoon; Max Planck Institute; Southern oscillation; Southern oscillation index; Statistical variability; Temporal correlations; Climatology; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; monsoon; precipitation (climatology); sea surface temperature; summer; teleconnection; India
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171412
作者单位	Pusan National University, Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Centre for the Mathematics of the Planet Earth, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos, CSIC-UIB, Palma de Mallorca, Spain; MTA–ELTETheoretical Physics Research Group, Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös University, Budapest, Hungary; Max-Planck-Institut fur € Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany; CEN, Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bódai T.,Drótos G.,Herein M.,等. The forced response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation–Indian monsoon teleconnection in ensembles of earth system models[J],2020,33(6).
APA	Bódai T.,Drótos G.,Herein M.,Lunkeit F.,&Lucarini V..(2020).The forced response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation–Indian monsoon teleconnection in ensembles of earth system models.Journal of Climate,33(6).
MLA	Bódai T.,et al."The forced response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation–Indian monsoon teleconnection in ensembles of earth system models".Journal of Climate 33.6(2020).