气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): On the time evolution of the Arctic oscillation and related wintertime phenomena under different forcing scenarios in an ensemble approach

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0004.1
	On the time evolution of the Arctic oscillation and related wintertime phenomena under different forcing scenarios in an ensemble approach
	Haszpra T.; Topál D.; Herein M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	3107
结束页码	3124
卷号	33 期号:8
英文摘要	The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its related wintertime phenomena are investigated under climate change by 2099 in an ensemble approach using the CESM1 Large Ensemble and the MPI-ESM Grand Ensemble with different RCP scenarios. The loading pattern of the AO is defined as the leading mode of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of sea level pressure from 208 to 908N. It is shown that the traditional AO index (AOI) calculation method, using a base period in a single climate realization, brings subjectivity to the investigation of the AO-related phenomena. Therefore, if an ensemble is available, the changes in the AO and its related phenomena should rather be studied by a reconsidered EOF analysis (snapshot EOF) introduced herein. This novel method is based only on the instantaneous fields of the ensemble, and hence it is capable of monitoring the time evolution of the AO's pattern and amplitude. Furthermore, the instantaneous correlation coefficient r can objectively be calculated between the AOI and, for example, the surface temperature, and thus the time dependence of the strength of these connections can also be revealed. Results emphasize that both the AO and the related surface temperature pattern are nonstationary and their time evolution depends on the forcing. The AO's amplitude increases and the Pacific center strengthens considerably in each scenario. Additionally, there exist such regions (e.g., northern Europe or western North America) where r shows remarkable change (0.2-0.4) by 2099. This study emphasizes the importance of the snapshot framework when studying changes in the climate system. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Orthogonal functions; Sea level; Surface properties; Arctic Oscillation; Arctic oscillations; Correlation coefficient; Empirical orthogonal function analysis; Ensemble approaches; Loading patterns; Sea level pressure; Surface temperatures; Climate change; Arctic Oscillation; atmospheric forcing; climate change; climate modeling; empirical orthogonal function analysis; ensemble forecasting; scenario analysis; seasonal variation; North America; Northern Europe
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171351
作者单位	Institute for Theoretical Physics, MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Eotv € os € Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; Department of Meteorology, Eotv € os € Loránd University, Institute for Geological and Geochemical Research, Research Center for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Budapest, Hungary
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Haszpra T.,Topál D.,Herein M.. On the time evolution of the Arctic oscillation and related wintertime phenomena under different forcing scenarios in an ensemble approach[J],2020,33(8).
APA	Haszpra T.,Topál D.,&Herein M..(2020).On the time evolution of the Arctic oscillation and related wintertime phenomena under different forcing scenarios in an ensemble approach.Journal of Climate,33(8).
MLA	Haszpra T.,et al."On the time evolution of the Arctic oscillation and related wintertime phenomena under different forcing scenarios in an ensemble approach".Journal of Climate 33.8(2020).