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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0641.1
	Remote forcing of tasman sea marine heatwaves
	Li Z.; Holbrook N.J.; Zhang X.; Oliver E.C.J.; Cougnon E.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	5337
结束页码	5354
卷号	33 期号:12
英文摘要	Recent marine heatwave (MHW) events in the Tasman Sea have had dramatic impacts on the ecosystems, fisheries, and aquaculture off Tasmania’s east coast. However, our understanding of the large-scale drivers (forcing) and potential predictability of MHW events in this region off southeast Australia is still in its infancy. Here, we investigate the role of oceanic Rossby waves forced in the interior South Pacific on observed MHW occurrences off southeast Australia from 1994 to 2016, including the extreme 2015/16 MHW event. First, we used an upper-ocean heat budget analysis to show that 51% of these historical Tasman Sea MHWs were primarily due to increased East Australian Current (EAC) Extension poleward transports through the region. Second, we used lagged correlation analysis to empirically connect the EAC Extension intensification to incoming westward-propagating sea surface height (SSH) anomalies from the interior South Pacific. Third, we dynamically analyzed these SSH anomalies using simple process-based baroclinic and barotropic Rossby wave models forced by wind stress curl changes across the South Pacific. Finally, we show that associated monthly SSH changes around New Zealand may be a useful index of western Tasman Sea MHW predictability, with a lead time of 2–3 years. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate that there is potential predictability of advection-dominated MHW event likelihoods in the EAC Extension region up to several years in advance, due to the deterministic contribution from baroclinic and barotropic Rossby waves in modulating the EAC Extension transports. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Ocean currents; Surface waters; Correlation analysis; Process-based; Remote forcing; Rossby wave; Sea surface height; Southeast australia; Upper ocean; Wind stress curl; Mechanical waves; air-sea interaction; barotropic wave; correlation; heat wave; numerical model; Rossby wave; wind velocity; East Australian Current; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (South); Tasman Sea
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171291
作者单位	Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, and Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada; Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li Z.,Holbrook N.J.,Zhang X.,et al. Remote forcing of tasman sea marine heatwaves[J],2020,33(12).
APA	Li Z.,Holbrook N.J.,Zhang X.,Oliver E.C.J.,&Cougnon E.A..(2020).Remote forcing of tasman sea marine heatwaves.Journal of Climate,33(12).
MLA	Li Z.,et al."Remote forcing of tasman sea marine heatwaves".Journal of Climate 33.12(2020).