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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0650.1
	How significant was the 1877/78 El Niño?
	Huang B.; L'Heureux M.; Hu Z.-Z.; Yin X.; Zhang H.-M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	4853
结束页码	4869
卷号	33 期号:11
英文摘要	Previous research has shown that the 1877/78 El Niño resulted in great famine events around the world. However, the strength and statistical significance of this El Niño event have not been fully addressed, largely due to the lack of data. We take a closer look at the data using an ensemble analysis of the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 5 (ERSSTv5). The ERSSTv5 standard run indicates a strong El Niño event with a peak monthly value of the Niño-3 index of 3.58C during 1877/78, stronger than those during 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16. However, an analysis of the ERSSTv5 ensemble runs indicates that the strength and significance (uncertainty estimates) depend on the construction of the ensembles. A 1000- member ensemble analysis shows that the ensemble mean Niño-3 index has a much weaker peak of 1.88C, and its uncertainty is much larger during 1877/78 (2.88C) than during 1982/83 (0.38C), 1997/98 (0.28C), and 2015/16 (0.18C). Further, the large uncertainty during 1877/78 is associated with selections of a short (1 month) period of raw-data filter and a large (20%) acceptance criterion of empirical orthogonal teleconnection modes in the ERSSTv5 reconstruction. By adjusting these two parameters, the uncertainty during 1877/78 decreases to 0.58C, while the peak monthly value of the Niño-3 index in the ensemble mean increases to 2.88C, suggesting a strong and statistically significant 1877/78 El Niño event. The adjustment of those two parameters is validated by masking the modern observations of 1981-2017 to 1861-97. Based on the estimated uncertainties, the differences among the strength of these four major El Niño events are not statistically significant. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Food supply; Oceanography; Surface waters; Acceptance criteria; Data filter; Sea surface temperature (SST); Statistical significance; Teleconnections; Two parameter; Uncertainty estimates; Uncertainty analysis; air-sea interaction; El Nino; famine; sea surface temperature; teleconnection; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171289
作者单位	NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, United States; NOAA/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States; Riverside Technology, Inc. (Government Contractor for NOAA/NCEI), Asheville, NC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang B.,L'Heureux M.,Hu Z.-Z.,et al. How significant was the 1877/78 El Niño?[J],2020,33(11).
APA	Huang B.,L'Heureux M.,Hu Z.-Z.,Yin X.,&Zhang H.-M..(2020).How significant was the 1877/78 El Niño?.Journal of Climate,33(11).
MLA	Huang B.,et al."How significant was the 1877/78 El Niño?".Journal of Climate 33.11(2020).