气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The change in the ENSO teleconnection under a low global warming scenario and the uncertainty due to internal variability

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0730.1
	The change in the ENSO teleconnection under a low global warming scenario and the uncertainty due to internal variability
	Michel C.; Li C.; Simpson I.R.; Bethke I.; King M.P.; Sobolowski S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	4871
结束页码	4889
卷号	33 期号:11
英文摘要	El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a main driver of climate variability worldwide, but the presence of atmospheric internal variability makes accurate assessments of its atmospheric teleconnections a challenge. Here, we use a multimodel large ensemble of simulations to investigate the ENSO teleconnection response to a low global warming scenario that represents Paris Agreement targets. The ensemble comprises five atmospheric general circulation models with two experiments (present-day and 128C) in which the same set of ENSO events is prescribed, which allows for quantification of the uncertainty in the ENSO response due to internal variability. In winter, the teleconnection during the positive ENSO phase features a strong negative anomaly in sea level pressure over the northeast Pacific (and vice versa for the negative phase); this anomaly shifts northeastward and strengthens in the warming experiment ensemble. At least 50-75 ENSO events are required to detect a significant shift or strengthening, emphasizing the need to adequately sample the internal variability to isolate the forced response of the ENSO teleconnection under a low warming scenario. Even more events may be needed if one includes other sources of uncertainty not considered in our experimental setup, such as changes in ENSO itself. Over North America, precipitation changes are generally more robust than temperature changes for the regions considered, despite large internal variability, and are shaped primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation. These results suggest that the observational period is likely too short for assessing changes in the ENSO teleconnection under Paris Agreement warming targets. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Sea level; Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric general circulation models; Atmospheric teleconnections; Internal variability; Precipitation change; Sources of uncertainty; Southern oscillation; Temperature changes; Global warming; atmospheric circulation; atmospheric modeling; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; global warming; teleconnection; uncertainty analysis; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Northeast)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171287
作者单位	Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Michel C.,Li C.,Simpson I.R.,et al. The change in the ENSO teleconnection under a low global warming scenario and the uncertainty due to internal variability[J],2020,33(11).
APA	Michel C.,Li C.,Simpson I.R.,Bethke I.,King M.P.,&Sobolowski S..(2020).The change in the ENSO teleconnection under a low global warming scenario and the uncertainty due to internal variability.Journal of Climate,33(11).
MLA	Michel C.,et al."The change in the ENSO teleconnection under a low global warming scenario and the uncertainty due to internal variability".Journal of Climate 33.11(2020).