气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Long-Lead Predictions of Warm Season Droughts in South Korea Using North Atlantic SST

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0082.1
	Long-Lead Predictions of Warm Season Droughts in South Korea Using North Atlantic SST
	Myoung B.; Rhee J.; Yoo C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	4659
结束页码	4677
卷号	33 期号:11
英文摘要	Understanding and predicting warm season (May-October) droughts is critically important in South Korea for agricultural productivity and water resource management. Using a 6-month standardized precipitation index ending in October (SPI6_Oct), we investigate the interannual variability of warm season droughts and the related large-scale atmospheric circulations for the most recent 20-yr period (1995-2014). Cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulations to the east of Japan (in the North Pacific) tend to induce warm season droughts (wetness) by suppressing (enhancing) moist water transport from the south of the Korean Peninsula. These circulation patterns to the east of Japan are linked to a barotropic Rossby wave-like teleconnection pattern from the North Atlantic to East Asia, which is found to be responsible for the interannual variability of SPI6_Oct. This teleconnection pattern is highly correlated with the difference in sea surface temperature (SST) between theNorwegian Sea and the Barents Sea (referred to asNA_dipole) in January-March (r50.68), which modulates the snow depth over the Ural Mountains in spring and the sea ice concentration over the Barents Sea during the entire warm season. Two drought prediction models, an empirical model and a hybrid machine learning model, are developed and tested for their predictive skills for South Korea. An empirical prediction model using NA_dipole as one of the predictors is found to accurately capture the interannual variability of SPI6_Oct (r2 5 53%). NA_dipole is found to improve the predictive skills of the hybrid machine learning drought predictionmodel, especially for longer lead times.Our results emphasize the significant role of North Atlantic SST anomalies in warm season medium-range droughts in South Korea. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Agricultural robots; Drought; Forecasting; Machine learning; Mechanical waves; Productivity; Sea ice; Surface waters; Water management; Agricultural productivity; Atmospheric circulation; Empirical prediction models; Interannual variability; Sea surface temperature (SST); Standardized precipitation index; Teleconnection patterns; Waterresource management; Oceanography; accuracy assessment; air-sea interaction; annual variation; atmosphere-ocean coupling; drought; numerical model; sea surface temperature; water resource; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); South Korea
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171267
作者单位	Apec Climate Center, Busan, South Korea; Department of Climate and Energy Systems Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Myoung B.,Rhee J.,Yoo C.. Long-Lead Predictions of Warm Season Droughts in South Korea Using North Atlantic SST[J],2020,33(11).
APA	Myoung B.,Rhee J.,&Yoo C..(2020).Long-Lead Predictions of Warm Season Droughts in South Korea Using North Atlantic SST.Journal of Climate,33(11).
MLA	Myoung B.,et al."Long-Lead Predictions of Warm Season Droughts in South Korea Using North Atlantic SST".Journal of Climate 33.11(2020).