气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected changes in the southern indian ocean cyclone activity assessed from high-resolution experiments and CMIP5 models

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0591.1
	Projected changes in the southern indian ocean cyclone activity assessed from high-resolution experiments and CMIP5 models
	Cattiaux J.; Chauvin F.; Bousquet O.; Malardel S.; Tsai C.-L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	4975
结束页码	4991
卷号	33 期号:12
英文摘要	The evolution of tropical cyclone activity under climate change remains a crucial scientific issue. Physical theory of cyclogenesis is limited, observational datasets suffer from heterogeneities in space and time, and state-of-the-art climate models used for future projections are still too coarse (;100 km of resolution) to simulate realistic systems. Two approaches can nevertheless be considered: 1) perform dedicated highresolution (typically ,50 km) experiments in which tropical cyclones can be tracked and 2) assess cyclone activity from existing low-resolution multimodel climate projections using large-scale indices as proxies. Here we explore these two approaches with a particular focus on the southern Indian Ocean.Wefirst compute highresolution experiments using the rotated-stretched configuration of our climate model (CNRM-CM6-1), which is able to simulate realistic tropical cyclones. In a 2-K warmer world, the model projects a 20% decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones, together with an increase in their maximum lifetime intensity, a slight poleward shift of their trajectories, and a substantial delay (about 1 month) in the cyclone season onset. Largescale indices applied to these high-resolution experiments fail to capture the overall decrease in cyclone frequency, but are able to partially represent projected changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone activity. Last, we apply large-scale indices to multimodel CMIP5 projections and find that the seasonal redistribution of cyclone activity is consistent across models. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate change; Hurricanes; Storms; Tropics; Climate projection; Future projections; Realistic systems; Scientific issues; Southern indian ocean; Spatiotemporal distributions; Substantial delays; Tropical cyclone activity; Climate models; anticyclone; climate change; CMIP; cyclone; experimental study; future prospect; seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; Indian Ocean
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171258
作者单位	Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de la Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, Saint-Denis, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cattiaux J.,Chauvin F.,Bousquet O.,et al. Projected changes in the southern indian ocean cyclone activity assessed from high-resolution experiments and CMIP5 models[J],2020,33(12).
APA	Cattiaux J.,Chauvin F.,Bousquet O.,Malardel S.,&Tsai C.-L..(2020).Projected changes in the southern indian ocean cyclone activity assessed from high-resolution experiments and CMIP5 models.Journal of Climate,33(12).
MLA	Cattiaux J.,et al."Projected changes in the southern indian ocean cyclone activity assessed from high-resolution experiments and CMIP5 models".Journal of Climate 33.12(2020).