Climate Change Data Portal
| DOI | 10.2196/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1024.1 |
| Evaluation of leading modes of climate variability in the CMIP archives | |
| Fasullo J.T.; Phillips A.S.; Deser C. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 0894-8755 |
| 起始页码 | 5527 |
| 结束页码 | 5545 |
| 卷号 | 33期号:3 |
| 英文摘要 | The adequate simulation of internal climate variability is key for our understanding of climate as it underpins efforts to attribute historical events, predict on seasonal and decadal time scales, and isolate the effects of climate change. Here the skill of models in reproducing observed modes of climate variability is assessed, both across and within the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 archives, in order to document model capabilities, progress across ensembles, and persisting biases. A focus is given to the well-observed tropical and extratropical modes that exhibit small intrinsic variability relative to model structural uncertainty. These include El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the northern and southern annular modes (NAM and SAM). Significant improvements are identified in models' representation of many modes. Canonical biases, which involve both amplitudes and patterns, are generally reduced across model generations. For example, biases in ENSO-related equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, which extend too far westward, and associated atmospheric teleconnections, which are too weak, are reduced. Stronger tropical expression of the PDO in successive CMIP generations has characterized their improvement, with some CMIP6 models generating patterns that lie within the range of observed estimates. For the NAO, NAM, and SAM, pattern correlations with observations are generally higher than for other modes and slight improvements are identified across successive model generations. For ENSO and PDO spectra and extratropical modes, changes are small compared to internal variability, precluding definitive statements regarding improvement. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. |
| 英文关键词 | Atmospheric pressure; Climate change; Oceanography; Surface waters; Tropics; Atmospheric teleconnections; Internal climate variability; Intrinsic variabilities; Model structural uncertainties; North Atlantic oscillations; Pacific decadal oscillation; Sea surface temperature (SST); Southern Annular Mode; Climate models; climate change; climate variation; CMIP; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; sea surface temperature; teleconnection; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial) |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源期刊 | Journal of Climate
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171252 |
| 作者单位 | National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fasullo J.T.,Phillips A.S.,Deser C.. Evaluation of leading modes of climate variability in the CMIP archives[J],2020,33(3). |
| APA | Fasullo J.T.,Phillips A.S.,&Deser C..(2020).Evaluation of leading modes of climate variability in the CMIP archives.Journal of Climate,33(3). |
| MLA | Fasullo J.T.,et al."Evaluation of leading modes of climate variability in the CMIP archives".Journal of Climate 33.3(2020). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
