气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Rapid warming in summer wet bulb globe temperature in china with human-induced climate change

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DOI	10.2196/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0492.1
	Rapid warming in summer wet bulb globe temperature in china with human-induced climate change
	Li C.; Sun Y.; Zwiers F.; Wang D.; Zhang X.; Chen G.; Wu H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	5697
结束页码	5711
卷号	33 期号:3
英文摘要	On the basis of a newly developed observational dataset and a suite of climate model simulations, we evaluate changes in summer mean wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) in China from 1961 through 2080. We show that summer mean WBGT has increased almost everywhere across China since 1961 as a result of human-induced climate change. Consequently, hot summers as measured by summer mean WBGT are becoming more frequent and more conducive to heat stress. Hot summers like the hottest on record during 1961-2015 in western or eastern China are now expected occur once every 3-4 years. These hot WBGT summers have become more than 140 times as likely in eastern China in the present decade (2010s) as in the 1961-90 baseline period and more than 1000 times as likely in western China. The substantially larger influence in western China is associated with its stronger warming signal, which is likely due to the high Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes of dry soils and increases in absorbed solar radiation from the decline in mountain snow cover extent. Observation-constrained projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario indicate that, by the 2040s, almost every summer in China will be at least as hot as the hottest summer in the historical record, and by the 2060s it will be common (on average, every other year) for summers to be as much as 3.08C hotter than the historical record, pointing to potentially large increases in the likelihood of human heat stress and to a massive adaption challenge. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate models; Snow; Thermal stress; Absorbed solar radiations; Climate model simulations; Eastern China; Emissions scenarios; Historical records; Snow cover extents; Western China; Wet-bulb globe temperatures; Climate change; anthropogenic effect; Bowen ratio; climate change; climate modeling; computer simulation; global warming; latent heat flux; sensible heat flux; snow cover; solar radiation; summer; China
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171246
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai, China; State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China; National Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Climate Research Division Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li C.,Sun Y.,Zwiers F.,et al. Rapid warming in summer wet bulb globe temperature in china with human-induced climate change[J],2020,33(3).
APA	Li C..,Sun Y..,Zwiers F..,Wang D..,Zhang X..,...&Wu H..(2020).Rapid warming in summer wet bulb globe temperature in china with human-induced climate change.Journal of Climate,33(3).
MLA	Li C.,et al."Rapid warming in summer wet bulb globe temperature in china with human-induced climate change".Journal of Climate 33.3(2020).